Treasury Market Indicator Signals Trouble for Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted February 5, 2020

One of the most powerful indicators of a recession looming is a yield curve inversion. As the yield curve continues to slope downward, the Fed will likely react by cutting short-term rates. This could bring another rise in stocks due to speculation, but deteriorating credit conditions could stall another rally.

You Must Be A Subscriber To View This Content.

If you are already a subscriber, click the login button below to get access. Not yet a subscriber? Checkout our publication below and get access today!

Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

View More By Dan Amoss

This Disruption Will Soon Hurt Restaurant Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted October 2, 2019

The restaurant industry has always been a competitive business. With the advent of food delivery apps, the competition has intensified. The net effect of the food delivery boom — once incremental sales fade — will be to significantly lower profit margins at the restaurant level. Lower margins along with weaker consumer spending on discretionary items will put immense pressure on restaurant stocks.

Brace Yourself for April Earnings Season

By Dan AmossPosted April 15, 2020

One cannot observe all the disruption that’s happened to a fragile, complex system like the global economy and realistically conclude that it will be “back to business as usual” at the flip of a switch. Many companies are reporting first-quarter earnings by late April and investors are bracing for the worst as the economic fallout from the pandemic hits corporate America.

Election Could Spark Unwind of Blue Wave Trades

By Dan AmossPosted October 28, 2020

Although most polls favor Joe Biden winning the White House, these odds have fallen in recent weeks as media coverage of Biden has turned slightly more negative. Yet interestingly, a basket of “blue wave,” or Democratic-sweep stocks, has not corrected as much as one would have expected. If Trump surprises the pollsters by winning, the decline in our latest recommendation could be very dramatic as blue wave trades unwind.

Royal Caribbean Cruises To Dilution

By Dan AmossPosted October 14, 2020

With changing consumer behavior due to the pandemic, the travel and leisure industry is suffering due to cash burn and weak balance sheets. This includes cruise ship operators like Royal Caribbean. Like so many cyclical travel companies and airlines, RCL shareholders are suffering significant dilution of their stakes in the company

When Momentum Stock Darlings Fall Through A Trap Door

By Dan AmossPosted November 11, 2020

We’re at the stage in the bull market when novice investors mistake bubble dynamics for real, sustainable fundamentals. Many of Wall Street’s “darlings” are propped up by hype and narratives instead of solid fundamentals like sustainable earnings, strong balance sheets, and predictable returns on capital. This can cause their stock prices to plummet without warning.

Airlines Need Much More Capital

By Dan AmossPosted April 29, 2020

One sector of the market suffering heavy losses is the airline industry. When taxpayer-funded payroll assistance ends, airlines must tap new sources of capital from the private sector. The longer that demand for airline travel remains far below its peak, the more cash airlines will burn and the more capital it will need. The result will be a heavy cost to shareholders.