Treasury Market Indicator Signals Trouble for Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted February 5, 2020

One of the most powerful indicators of a recession looming is a yield curve inversion. As the yield curve continues to slope downward, the Fed will likely react by cutting short-term rates. This could bring another rise in stocks due to speculation, but deteriorating credit conditions could stall another rally.

You Must Be A Subscriber To View This Content.

If you are already a subscriber, click the login button below to get access. Not yet a subscriber? Checkout our publication below and get access today!

Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

View More By Dan Amoss

A Shocking Example of Investor Complacency That Ended Badly

By Dan AmossPosted October 16, 2019

After a decade of pro-shareholder decisions from governments and regulators, political winds are shifting. Today, shareholders of distressed companies are feeling the pain of overvalued stocks that find themselves in legal jeopardy. There are many overvalued stocks in which investors are ignoring significant risks and should guard against complacency at their own peril.

Pickier Bond Investors Spell Trouble for Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted August 21, 2019

One of the trends we watch at Crash Speculator is action in the corporate bond market, as it always senses trouble before the stock market does. Currently, junk bond yield spreads are rising while stocks remain popular. This divergence is a warning sign for stocks as it was before the last bear market in 2007–08.

Yes, Public Companies Can Still Go Bankrupt During QE

By Dan AmossPosted January 22, 2020

Many investors believe as long as the Fed is printing money through QE or repo lending, stocks are insulated and will remain bullish. But good fundamentals and consistent profits must happen for market gains to continue. Even though investor risk appetites are high even in credit markets, companies that are highly leveraged and burning through cash are still vulnerable to bankruptcy.

This Disruption Will Soon Hurt Restaurant Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted October 2, 2019

The restaurant industry has always been a competitive business. With the advent of food delivery apps, the competition has intensified. The net effect of the food delivery boom — once incremental sales fade — will be to significantly lower profit margins at the restaurant level. Lower margins along with weaker consumer spending on discretionary items will put immense pressure on restaurant stocks.

What Will Ultimately End the Market Rally

By Dan AmossPosted January 8, 2020

The bull market has rolled on despite warning signals, including a global economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and ongoing trade talk tensions with China. A primary reason for this involves Fed balance sheet policy, which has caused stocks to run ahead of their earnings potential and fundamentals. This has made many stocks vulnerable to a downturn in the coming year.

American Airlines Is a Recession Away From Bankruptcy

By Dan AmossPosted July 10, 2019

Airline stocks appear to be morphing from solid investments into value traps. In particular, American Airline bulls assume the business is not as cyclical as it used to be, thanks to a more consolidated industry. But we already have plenty of evidence that the airline profit cycle is a few years past its peak and a recession will push American into financial distress.