Coronavirus Starts to Hit Tech Hardware Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted February 19, 2020

With the news that Apple Inc. has cut its revenue guidance due to the coronavirus outbreak, other tech hardware companies will suffer from both its supply chain and from lower demand for hard drives within China. This includes our latest play on Seagate Technology that has suffered unrelenting revenue declines in the past several years.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Most Stock Buybacks Destroy Shareholder Value

By Dan AmossPosted April 27, 2022

Stock buybacks have been in the news a lot in the past several years. They can be used to create or destroy value, depending on the circumstances. In today’s commentary, Dan details how to create a successful buyback program that creates value, while most are actually destroying value for long-term shareholders.

Indigestion Hits Chipotle Shareholders

By Dan AmossPosted April 28, 2021

It’s one thing to pay a high valuation for an early-stage, high-growth company, provided investors are willing to hold the stock long enough. It’s quite another thing to pay a high valuation for a mature company in a competitive, low-margin industry. Our latest recommendation with CMG falls under the latter as customer loyalty will be tested soon.

Oversaturation of Food Delivery Apps Slams Grubhub

By Dan AmossPosted November 13, 2019

Food delivery apps are a form of restaurant sector disruption and have been highly popular with diners in recent years. However, oversaturation of these apps has led to intense competition and a stunning crash of Grubhub stock in late October. This overinvestment will result in consumers benefiting at the expense of the app companies and restaurants, which will continue putting pressure on their stock prices.

The Solar Bubble Hits Resistance

By Dan AmossPosted February 17, 2021

Bubbles are characterized by greater and greater demand for a stock, without the justification of healthy growth from the underlying business. When fundamentals lag behind share prices, investors pay many times their earnings. Because sometimes bubbles can create unjustified gains longer than expected, we use carefully chosen options trades to bet against them.

Why Carvana is Not the Next Amazon

By Dan AmossPosted September 16, 2020

One key to distinguishing the failure of a company that truly has the potential to mimic a younger Amazon is whether or not that company’s business model is easily copied. Carvana’s model is much more capital-intensive than a young Amazon was, and any number of catalysts could break the Carvana stock bubble in the coming weeks. That’s why we are holding a bearish option position in the portfolio.

The Danger of Irrationally Optimistic Predictions

By Dan AmossPosted September 29, 2021

When people in authority set expectations about what is possible, it’s important to be truthful and realistic about what is possible… and by when. Otherwise, things that society often takes for granted, like regular food and fuel supplies, can suffer bottlenecks in supply. That’s why unrealistically optimistic forecasts about the future – by political and corporate leaders – are causing real-world problems today.