How Meal Delivery Kits Are Part of the Sugar-Rush Economy

By Dan AmossPosted April 1, 2020

Like sugar for humans, bubble-driven economies build up a tolerance for ever-higher doses of money and credit. Once economies fall into addiction, the long-term consequences are tragic: either a deflationary collapse or hyperinflation. An alternative path might be a policy that proactively weans the system from addiction, but such a policy is politically impossible. That’s why many companies today are part of the sugar-rush economy.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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A Shocking Example of Investor Complacency That Ended Badly

By Dan AmossPosted October 16, 2019

After a decade of pro-shareholder decisions from governments and regulators, political winds are shifting. Today, shareholders of distressed companies are feeling the pain of overvalued stocks that find themselves in legal jeopardy. There are many overvalued stocks in which investors are ignoring significant risks and should guard against complacency at their own peril.

Why Retail Investors Refuse to Join the Melt-Up

By Dan AmossPosted December 11, 2019

As baby boomers approach retirement, the older demographic of investors is a headwind for U.S. equity markets due to a more conservative approach to investments. In fact, the demographic-driven rotation from stock funds to bond funds is likely to accelerate rather than reverse. In fact, more companies are now using bond offerings to build up cash reserves ahead of a potential recession.

How Bubble Logic Drives Wayfair Stock

By Dan AmossPosted May 13, 2020

Wayfair stock has skyrocketed in the past few months as consumers increase their internet buying during the pandemic. However, negative cash flow and ballooning debt will spell trouble for Wayfair when it can’t keep up its frantic growth pace after brick-and-mortar competition reopen and pop its stock bubble.

Yes, Public Companies Can Still Go Bankrupt During QE

By Dan AmossPosted January 22, 2020

Many investors believe as long as the Fed is printing money through QE or repo lending, stocks are insulated and will remain bullish. But good fundamentals and consistent profits must happen for market gains to continue. Even though investor risk appetites are high even in credit markets, companies that are highly leveraged and burning through cash are still vulnerable to bankruptcy.

Why PG&E Shareholders Own More Liabilities Than Assets

By Dan AmossPosted June 26, 2019

As PG&E goes through the bankruptcy process, shareholders will find the utility company’s assets are likely worth less than its liabilities. As a result, there’s a very good chance PCG stock will likely go to zero or a tiny fraction of its current trading price. Today, Dan examines its balance sheet and why assets aren’t worth as much as bulls expect.

We Are Entering Corporate Triage

By Dan AmossPosted March 18, 2020

Today, many businesses face a shutdown of indefinite duration and an uncertain recovery afterward. These consumer-facing businesses are not designed or prepared for something like a coronavirus pandemic. Most operate on tight profit margins, have heavy capital requirements and are burdened with large debts. Dealing with how to help companies, you can think of corporate triage as policymakers deciding which companies get rescued and how they might get rescued.