How Meal Delivery Kits Are Part of the Sugar-Rush Economy

By Dan AmossPosted April 1, 2020

Like sugar for humans, bubble-driven economies build up a tolerance for ever-higher doses of money and credit. Once economies fall into addiction, the long-term consequences are tragic: either a deflationary collapse or hyperinflation. An alternative path might be a policy that proactively weans the system from addiction, but such a policy is politically impossible. That’s why many companies today are part of the sugar-rush economy.

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Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Airlines Need Much More Capital

By Dan AmossPosted April 29, 2020

One sector of the market suffering heavy losses is the airline industry. When taxpayer-funded payroll assistance ends, airlines must tap new sources of capital from the private sector. The longer that demand for airline travel remains far below its peak, the more cash airlines will burn and the more capital it will need. The result will be a heavy cost to shareholders.

How Inflation Undermines Trust

By Dan AmossPosted February 16, 2022

Inflation will keep damaging the U.S. economy for a while longer by stealing income, savings, and time. Beyond these costs, inflation has an immeasurable subtle cost that many companies don’t factor into their long-term profitability goals. Dan discusses in today’s commentary.

When Momentum Stock Darlings Fall Through A Trap Door

By Dan AmossPosted November 11, 2020

We’re at the stage in the bull market when novice investors mistake bubble dynamics for real, sustainable fundamentals. Many of Wall Street’s “darlings” are propped up by hype and narratives instead of solid fundamentals like sustainable earnings, strong balance sheets, and predictable returns on capital. This can cause their stock prices to plummet without warning.

The Solar Bubble Hits Resistance

By Dan AmossPosted February 17, 2021

Bubbles are characterized by greater and greater demand for a stock, without the justification of healthy growth from the underlying business. When fundamentals lag behind share prices, investors pay many times their earnings. Because sometimes bubbles can create unjustified gains longer than expected, we use carefully chosen options trades to bet against them.

Xi Prepares To Manage China’s Economic Decline

By Dan AmossPosted October 13, 2021

In recent years, China has almost certainly pivoted from consistent growth to slow decline. And it’s doing so with a remarkably overindebted financial system. Pivoting from growth to decline isn’t as big a deal if debt levels are low and companies run lean. However, this pivot can be extremely damaging if debt levels prevent financial and operational flexibility. This is the situation President Xi find himself in as he attempts to manage China’s economic decline.

Oil and Gas Production Is The West’s Most Potent Weapon

By Jim RickardsPosted March 2, 2022

An immediate increase in oil and gas exploration would be far more effective and lasting than banking sanctions against Russia, which risk uncertain worldwide financial and economic blowback. The dominant theme in the weeks ahead is likely to be market discovery of which discretionary products and services may get “priced out” of the Western consumption menu by crisis conditions in oil supply. This will affect the stock price of companies we will focus on in future recommendations.