Warning: Investors Feel Bulletproof Yet Again

By Dan AmossPosted June 24, 2020

Investors feel bulletproof yet again, extremely confident that the bear market is over because “the Fed has their back.” But what ultimately “has the back” of bullish investors is the supply of new money that comes from other bullish investors. Yet that supply, which includes buying pressure from high-frequency trading, can turn on a dime once momentum shifts and prices can fall sharply as a result.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Zombie Bubble Phenomenon Reinflates AMC

By Dan AmossPosted May 26, 2021

AMC shares are moving higher from an intense desire by inexperienced traders to own a stock at prices that will require endlessly strong demand for the stock. Time-tested fundamental analysis indicates that AMC shares are practically worthless, but this latest buying spree is hurting our position. It’s the latest version of “zombie bubbles” that have occurred in 2020-21.

Oversaturation of Food Delivery Apps Slams Grubhub

By Dan AmossPosted November 13, 2019

Food delivery apps are a form of restaurant sector disruption and have been highly popular with diners in recent years. However, oversaturation of these apps has led to intense competition and a stunning crash of Grubhub stock in late October. This overinvestment will result in consumers benefiting at the expense of the app companies and restaurants, which will continue putting pressure on their stock prices.

The Infamous Archegos Held Our Latest Short Idea

By Scott StewartPosted April 14, 2021

The Archegos Capital meltdown reminds us that attempting to corner and control stock prices with a temporary blitz of buying or selling is the opposite of “bringing a fair price” to a stock. It brings a distorted, temporary, and fake price to a stock. With SHOP being on the list of stocks that Archegos has owned in the past, it’s not surprising that Shopify is a company that is long on narrative about dominating some future version of the world, but short on tangible financial results.

Yes, Public Companies Can Still Go Bankrupt During QE

By Dan AmossPosted January 22, 2020

Many investors believe as long as the Fed is printing money through QE or repo lending, stocks are insulated and will remain bullish. But good fundamentals and consistent profits must happen for market gains to continue. Even though investor risk appetites are high even in credit markets, companies that are highly leveraged and burning through cash are still vulnerable to bankruptcy.

What Will Ultimately End the Market Rally

By Dan AmossPosted January 8, 2020

The bull market has rolled on despite warning signals, including a global economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and ongoing trade talk tensions with China. A primary reason for this involves Fed balance sheet policy, which has caused stocks to run ahead of their earnings potential and fundamentals. This has made many stocks vulnerable to a downturn in the coming year.

What Boeing’s Earnings Beat Really Means

By Dan AmossPosted August 4, 2021

Although Boeing had an “earnings beat” last week, it doesn’t mean much to shareholders. In fact, a key takeaway from a recent research report on Boeing is that earnings, free cash flow, and returns on capital will take a long time to recover to pre-Covid peaks. Adding increased competition in the sector, expect headwinds for BA’s recovery.