2020 Election Poll Update
Dear Rich Lifer,
Today we find ourselves halfway through September.
The time seems to be flying by, with each passing hour bringing us closer to the long-awaited 2020 election.
November 3 is fast approaching, and election coverage has become part of the daily newscycle.
Over the past year, the numerous Democratic candidates — all vying for the chance to go head to head with Donald Trump — have dwindled to just one: Joe Biden.
With Biden finally having announced his running mate, Kamala Harris, we decided to take a look at the polls to see where things currently stand.
While it appears that Joe Biden is currently leading Donald Trump in the national polls, a democratic victory is not guaranteed.
Who can forget 2016 when Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton lost the election after having a significant lead in the polls almost her entire campaign?
Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a certain number of electoral college votes — which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory — it has become abundantly clear that swing states will ultimately be the ones deciding who our next president will be.
So today, we will take a look at a few key swing states and check in on how both candidates are doing in the polls.
A Monmouth University poll of voters in Florida — conducted September 10-15 in a survey of 428 registered voters — found Biden ahead of Trump by 5 points (50%-45%).
Another Florida poll, conducted by Florida Atlantic University, released Tuesday showed Biden up 3 points in the state (49%-46%).
So while Biden appears to have a small lead, it’s important to keep an eye on two key demographics to see how things will play out — Latinos and Elderly People.
Polls have consistently shown Biden struggling with Hispanic voters, particularly Cuban Americans, in Florida.
This voting bloc makes up a large portion of the population — 20% of the electorate to be more precise.
Cuban Americans make up a third of Latino voters in Florida, according to a 2018 Pew analysis, and have been avid Republicans, drawn to a platform that has extolled capitalism and kept a hard line on the economic embargo on Cuba.
Trump has capitalized on this and has attempted to use this advantage to appeal to other Latino groups such as Venezuelan Americans.
Last week, an NBC News/Marist poll showed Trump with a narrow edge (50% – 46%) over Biden among Latino voters in Florida.
However, The Biden campaign has outspent the Trump campaign on TV advertising in Florida during this cycle to date, $42 million to $30 million, according to political ad tracker Kantar/CMAG.
New Biden ads are hitting Trump hard on his handling of coronavirus and accusing him of cutting Social Security — two issues important to older voters.
Trump won Florida in 2016 with a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton among voters age 65 or older, but the latest polling suggests Trump’s advantage with the group is slipping away.
We will continue to keep our eye on Florida as these two key demographics could be the ones to decide which way the state will swing.
Among registered voters in North Carolina, 49 percent surveyed said they preferred Biden, while 44 percent opted for Trump, according to CNN/SRSS polls released on Tuesday.
The polls were conducted September 9-13 after clips and excerpts from Bob Woodward’s interview with Trump were released where he admits that COVID-19 is deadlier than he was letting on.
These numbers seem to mimic several other swing states where recent polling shows Biden or too close to call.
However, when asked about certain key issues in the election, voters were divided.
When it comes to the economy, Trump still is the clear favorite among North Carolinians, with 52% saying he can handle it better. They also think Trump has better “stamina and sharpness” to stay in office (50% to 44%).
On the other hand, when asked about issues such as the coronavirus pandemic (52% to 46%) and racial inequality (53% to 41%), Biden came out on top. Biden is also seen as being more likely to unite the country (54% to 40%).
Polled voters were split evenly (47% to 47%) over who has a clear plan to solve the country’s problems and who would keep Americans safe from harm (49% Trump to 48% Biden).
Among total respondents in North Carolina, 51% said they disapproved of Trump’s performance as president, while only 43% approved.
Joe Biden seems to be leading Trump in the state of corn and cheese, with voters leaning 52% for Biden and only 42% for Trump.
Unlike North Carolina, where voters seem to be split on key issues, in Wisconsin, Biden carries a lead on every issue except the economy (a very slim margin with 49% Trump to 48% Biden) and “stamina and sharpness” (47% Trump to 44% Biden).
In one of the biggest issues currently facing Americans, the coronavirus, Biden leads Trump in trust by 13 points.
Biden’s standing in Wisconsin is slightly stronger than other recent polls there have found, especially with women, older voters and independents.
Wisconsin is also a hot spot for racial issues, especially due to the recent shooting of Jacob Blake by police in Kenosha. Among likely voters, 48% approve of Biden’s response to the events, 42% disapprove. For Trump, 42% approve and 54% disapprove.
When polled along racial lines, 43% of White people approve of Trump’s response and 44% of Biden’s. People of color, however, give Biden far higher approval numbers (50%) than they do Trump (16%).
In Wisconsin, 55% of all respondents disapproved of Trump’s performance and only 40% approved.
Regardless of any current reporting, we must always remember to account for polling cautiously and to remember the 2016 election in which the polls — particularly some swing state polls — severely undercounted Trump supporters.
There can be no way to be certain that swing states have more accurate polling procedures.
No way, at least, until November 3.
To a Richer Life,
The Rich Life Roadmap Team