The Solar Bubble Hits Resistance

By Dan AmossPosted February 17, 2021

Bubbles are characterized by greater and greater demand for a stock, without the justification of healthy growth from the underlying business. When fundamentals lag behind share prices, investors pay many times their earnings. Because sometimes bubbles can create unjustified gains longer than expected, we use carefully chosen options trades to bet against them.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Bubbles Infect U.S. Economy With Dutch Disease

By Dan AmossPosted January 5, 2022

For years, politicians of both parties have advocated rebuilding manufacturing plants that were offshored in recent decades. With a consensus that manufacturing jobs are good, why hasn’t this happened? Because perpetual asset bubbles and a manufacturing renaissance are unlikely to co-exist. Dan explains more in this week’s commentary.

Zombie Bubble Phenomenon Reinflates AMC

By Dan AmossPosted May 26, 2021

AMC shares are moving higher from an intense desire by inexperienced traders to own a stock at prices that will require endlessly strong demand for the stock. Time-tested fundamental analysis indicates that AMC shares are practically worthless, but this latest buying spree is hurting our position. It’s the latest version of “zombie bubbles” that have occurred in 2020-21.

Early Warning from Micron is Bad News for Microchip

By Dan AmossPosted August 19, 2020

The semiconductor industry is experiencing hard times as Micron is experiencing high inventory levels due to the pandemic and a crash in consumer spending. That is a warning for Microchip Technology, which depends on consumer sales in hardware and business investment for most of its revenue.

Why Target Stock Is Much Riskier Than It Appears

By Dan AmossPosted November 27, 2019

As we move into December, retail stocks are vulnerable to both holiday sales as well as scheduled tariffs to be implemented on consumer goods that will squeeze profit margins. This will put pressure on earnings and stock prices as a result.

American Airlines Is a Recession Away From Bankruptcy

By Dan AmossPosted July 10, 2019

Airline stocks appear to be morphing from solid investments into value traps. In particular, American Airline bulls assume the business is not as cyclical as it used to be, thanks to a more consolidated industry. But we already have plenty of evidence that the airline profit cycle is a few years past its peak and a recession will push American into financial distress.

Rising Oil Prices Are Doing The Fed’s Job: Tightening

By Dan AmossPosted January 19, 2022

As the Fed prepares to raise rates this year, many investors worry about a market correction. But consumers should be more worried about rising oil prices, which matter more to the real economy. If global oil supplies are as tight as we expect, it would box the Fed (and investors who are not prepared) into only bad and worse outcomes. Dan gives commentary on how higher oil prices will also benefit our current put position with American Airlines and other consumer discretionary stocks.