Reopening Plays Are Priced To Perfection

By Dan AmossPosted March 17, 2021

If an investor does not have context about the financial health of a company, then that investors might believe that changes in the fortunes of a company are the only thing that determine its stock price. But, a closer look at fundamentals can determine its direction more than just positive news about the sector overall.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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What Bubble Stocks And Bitcoin Have In Common

By Dan AmossPosted January 20, 2021

Bubble stocks and Bitcoin are two categories of speculative assets that have so many parallels. The longer today’s stock market bubble environment persists, the more damage it’s going to inflict on the future economy. In addition, extreme risk-taking is spreading from day traders to corporate boardrooms as many company treasurers are now speculating on Bitcoin with scarce shareholder capital.

Avoid This Common Investing Mistake

By Dan AmossPosted August 18, 2021

The media only promotes one side of a two-sided market. Celebrating higher asset prices presuppose that the audience already owns assets. Is promoting high asset prices really a net benefit to an economy? Reasonable asset prices – set by the transactions of unpressured, unmanipulated buyers and sellers – make for a healthier society and a thriving overall economy.

Xi Prepares To Manage China’s Economic Decline

By Dan AmossPosted October 13, 2021

In recent years, China has almost certainly pivoted from consistent growth to slow decline. And it’s doing so with a remarkably overindebted financial system. Pivoting from growth to decline isn’t as big a deal if debt levels are low and companies run lean. However, this pivot can be extremely damaging if debt levels prevent financial and operational flexibility. This is the situation President Xi find himself in as he attempts to manage China’s economic decline.

Wynn’s Tornado of Adverse Events Continues

By Dan AmossPosted September 2, 2020

Shares of casino owner Wynn Resorts Ltd., our latest short idea, continue to lag the market for very good reasons. Wynn faces a triple tornado of adverse events. These include the pandemic, the resulting economic depression and trouble for their Macau location. A rebound will surely arrive, but how large it will be is unclear. As revenues decline and debt load rises, these headwinds will continue to put downward pressure on its stock price.

This Disruption Will Soon Hurt Restaurant Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted October 2, 2019

The restaurant industry has always been a competitive business. With the advent of food delivery apps, the competition has intensified. The net effect of the food delivery boom — once incremental sales fade — will be to significantly lower profit margins at the restaurant level. Lower margins along with weaker consumer spending on discretionary items will put immense pressure on restaurant stocks.

Royal Caribbean Cruises To Dilution

By Dan AmossPosted October 14, 2020

With changing consumer behavior due to the pandemic, the travel and leisure industry is suffering due to cash burn and weak balance sheets. This includes cruise ship operators like Royal Caribbean. Like so many cyclical travel companies and airlines, RCL shareholders are suffering significant dilution of their stakes in the company