Reopening Plays Are Priced To Perfection

By Dan AmossPosted March 17, 2021

If an investor does not have context about the financial health of a company, then that investors might believe that changes in the fortunes of a company are the only thing that determine its stock price. But, a closer look at fundamentals can determine its direction more than just positive news about the sector overall.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Election Could Spark Unwind of Blue Wave Trades

By Dan AmossPosted October 28, 2020

Although most polls favor Joe Biden winning the White House, these odds have fallen in recent weeks as media coverage of Biden has turned slightly more negative. Yet interestingly, a basket of “blue wave,” or Democratic-sweep stocks, has not corrected as much as one would have expected. If Trump surprises the pollsters by winning, the decline in our latest recommendation could be very dramatic as blue wave trades unwind.

Why Carvana is Not the Next Amazon

By Dan AmossPosted September 16, 2020

One key to distinguishing the failure of a company that truly has the potential to mimic a younger Amazon is whether or not that company’s business model is easily copied. Carvana’s model is much more capital-intensive than a young Amazon was, and any number of catalysts could break the Carvana stock bubble in the coming weeks. That’s why we are holding a bearish option position in the portfolio.

Pickier Bond Investors Spell Trouble for Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted August 21, 2019

One of the trends we watch at Crash Speculator is action in the corporate bond market, as it always senses trouble before the stock market does. Currently, junk bond yield spreads are rising while stocks remain popular. This divergence is a warning sign for stocks as it was before the last bear market in 2007–08.

How Bubble Logic Drives Wayfair Stock

By Dan AmossPosted May 13, 2020

Wayfair stock has skyrocketed in the past few months as consumers increase their internet buying during the pandemic. However, negative cash flow and ballooning debt will spell trouble for Wayfair when it can’t keep up its frantic growth pace after brick-and-mortar competition reopen and pop its stock bubble.

Wynn’s Tornado of Adverse Events Continues

By Dan AmossPosted September 2, 2020

Shares of casino owner Wynn Resorts Ltd., our latest short idea, continue to lag the market for very good reasons. Wynn faces a triple tornado of adverse events. These include the pandemic, the resulting economic depression and trouble for their Macau location. A rebound will surely arrive, but how large it will be is unclear. As revenues decline and debt load rises, these headwinds will continue to put downward pressure on its stock price.

What Will Ultimately End the Market Rally

By Dan AmossPosted January 8, 2020

The bull market has rolled on despite warning signals, including a global economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and ongoing trade talk tensions with China. A primary reason for this involves Fed balance sheet policy, which has caused stocks to run ahead of their earnings potential and fundamentals. This has made many stocks vulnerable to a downturn in the coming year.