Zombie Bubble Phenomenon Reinflates AMC

By Dan AmossPosted May 26, 2021

AMC shares are moving higher from an intense desire by inexperienced traders to own a stock at prices that will require endlessly strong demand for the stock. Time-tested fundamental analysis indicates that AMC shares are practically worthless, but this latest buying spree is hurting our position. It’s the latest version of “zombie bubbles” that have occurred in 2020-21.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Mounting Risks in Used Car Financing Will Hit CarMax

By Dan AmossPosted May 27, 2020

Changing consumer habits have hit the used car industry hard. Inventory turnover has slowed along with easy financing. Management has had to take extreme measures in response to a collapse in retail sales. With the increase in customer loan defaults and increased competition from auto manufacturers as a result of a lower customer base, CarMax’s stock price will start feeling the pressure.

A Shocking Example of Investor Complacency That Ended Badly

By Dan AmossPosted October 16, 2019

After a decade of pro-shareholder decisions from governments and regulators, political winds are shifting. Today, shareholders of distressed companies are feeling the pain of overvalued stocks that find themselves in legal jeopardy. There are many overvalued stocks in which investors are ignoring significant risks and should guard against complacency at their own peril.

What Will Ultimately End the Market Rally

By Dan AmossPosted January 8, 2020

The bull market has rolled on despite warning signals, including a global economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and ongoing trade talk tensions with China. A primary reason for this involves Fed balance sheet policy, which has caused stocks to run ahead of their earnings potential and fundamentals. This has made many stocks vulnerable to a downturn in the coming year.

Rapid Detonation Of Archegos Is A Stark Warning

By Dan AmossPosted March 31, 2021

In the current market environment, with investor positioning still lopsidedly bullish and highly leveraged shareholders like Archegos, it’s especially worthwhile to limit holdings to quality stocks trading at reasonable valuations. When markets become dominated by momentum traders, and value-conscious buyers are left in the dust, then the predictable result is near-vertical rallies followed by even faster crashes.

Why Carvana is Not the Next Amazon

By Dan AmossPosted September 16, 2020

One key to distinguishing the failure of a company that truly has the potential to mimic a younger Amazon is whether or not that company’s business model is easily copied. Carvana’s model is much more capital-intensive than a young Amazon was, and any number of catalysts could break the Carvana stock bubble in the coming weeks. That’s why we are holding a bearish option position in the portfolio.

Treasury Market Indicator Signals Trouble for Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted February 5, 2020

One of the most powerful indicators of a recession looming is a yield curve inversion. As the yield curve continues to slope downward, the Fed will likely react by cutting short-term rates. This could bring another rise in stocks due to speculation, but deteriorating credit conditions could stall another rally.