Focus On Process Rather Than Outcomes

By Dan AmossPosted February 2, 2022

Normally the dog of stock prices moves the tail of options prices. But speculative appetite for call options became so enormous in 2020 and 2021 that call buying was substantially increasing stock prices. Like so many things in today's upside-down world, processes and outcomes were inverted. Lacking a diligent process in life can spell trouble, including for investors. Dan also reviews Apple’s quarterly earnings.

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Jim Rickards’ Crash Speculator

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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Hotel Supply Glut Hampers Hilton Recovery

By Dan AmossPosted July 22, 2020

As we analyze the fallout of the economic shutdown, it is clear people are avoiding high-density locations including hotels, resorts and theme parks. With travel increasingly difficult due to cutbacks in transportation options and quarantines, hotels like Hilton are facing a multi-year drought in demand, pricing power, and earnings which will hamper their recovery.

Supply Of New Shares Will Depressurize The Bubble

By Dan AmossPosted January 6, 2021

Today’s bulls rest easy with the notion that central banks “have their back.” Central bankers have promised not to raise interest rates for years, so there’s no perceived threat of tighter financial conditions. They shouldn’t rest easy though. Because another slower-moving threat to the overvaluation environment is emerging. A relentless supply of new securities could ultimately be the pin that pricks today’s bubble.

This Disruption Will Soon Hurt Restaurant Stocks

By Dan AmossPosted October 2, 2019

The restaurant industry has always been a competitive business. With the advent of food delivery apps, the competition has intensified. The net effect of the food delivery boom — once incremental sales fade — will be to significantly lower profit margins at the restaurant level. Lower margins along with weaker consumer spending on discretionary items will put immense pressure on restaurant stocks.

What Boeing’s Earnings Beat Really Means

By Dan AmossPosted August 4, 2021

Although Boeing had an “earnings beat” last week, it doesn’t mean much to shareholders. In fact, a key takeaway from a recent research report on Boeing is that earnings, free cash flow, and returns on capital will take a long time to recover to pre-Covid peaks. Adding increased competition in the sector, expect headwinds for BA’s recovery.

Wynn’s Tornado of Adverse Events Continues

By Dan AmossPosted September 2, 2020

Shares of casino owner Wynn Resorts Ltd., our latest short idea, continue to lag the market for very good reasons. Wynn faces a triple tornado of adverse events. These include the pandemic, the resulting economic depression and trouble for their Macau location. A rebound will surely arrive, but how large it will be is unclear. As revenues decline and debt load rises, these headwinds will continue to put downward pressure on its stock price.

When Momentum Stock Darlings Fall Through A Trap Door

By Dan AmossPosted November 11, 2020

We’re at the stage in the bull market when novice investors mistake bubble dynamics for real, sustainable fundamentals. Many of Wall Street’s “darlings” are propped up by hype and narratives instead of solid fundamentals like sustainable earnings, strong balance sheets, and predictable returns on capital. This can cause their stock prices to plummet without warning.