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Posted April 22, 2022

Sean Ring

By Sean Ring

Happy Rude Year!

  • I took over the Rude 366 days ago.
  • Its been a crazy political and economic year.
  • Thank you for your fantastic support and encouragement!

Happy Friday, as well!

Its been a crazy few weeks in Italy, as were still looking for an apartment from which we can complete all our immigration formalities.

In essence, we need to rent until the paperwork is done, and then we can buy a house.

Its been a bit uncomfortable as Italy shuts down over Easter.

And since there are few taxis in Asti, Ive had to wheel our big bags from Airbnb to Airbnb.

My forearms havent been this sore since my freshman year in high school!

Nevertheless, the process has been well worth it, even if a bit more expensive and time-consuming than I thought it would be.

The late, great Jim Camp talked about knowing how much your opponent has spent in time, energy, emotion, and money during the negotiation process.

Ill add that its perhaps even more important to know your own - and your spouses!

So crazy has it been that I missed our first Rude anniversary, which was technically yesterday.

Thats ok, as I prefer to wait until somethings past me, like a goal line, before I start to celebrate.

So in todays edition, lets talk about what happened over these insane 12 months.

Afghanistan Disaster

In the history of mankind, no Catholic has ever executed a worse pull-out than Joe Biden.

So incompetent was the Afghanistan withdrawal that even Bidens most ardent supporters couldnt defend it.

They had to ignore it, especially because we left an enormous military gift on the ground for the Taleban.

Yes, the same Taleban whom the USG allegedly fought for the past 20 years.

The same Taleban, who hung out the Under New Management sign that was never supposed to appear.

The blood and treasure the USG spent to gain absolutely nothing is a permanent stain on the USs reputation.

Afghanistan certainly burnished theirs as the Graveyard of Empires.

History will almost certainly agree.

Build Back Better Never Gets to the Senate

Thank heavens for Joe Manchin.

Though a Democrat, he hails from West Virginia, so he cant be as wasteful a spender as his Northeast and West Coast counterparts.

Ive never found out that you can lower costs by spending more, Manchin allegedly said.

Can you imagine the inflation numbers if Congress passed this idiotic bill?

I shudder to think what Americans would have to pay for the follies of their socialist overlords.

No Net Netflix

Lets do this one in pictures.

First, we have Bill Ackman, owner of Wall Streets most punchable face, tweeting the following in January:

Next, we have NFLXs latest chart:

Yes, it dropped from about $700 to $218.22.

Finally, we have the headline:

Credit: ZeroHedge

I dont want to hang shit on Ackman.

Hes at the top of this field and a multibillionaire.

But this is the end of the FAANG era, I think.

The Great Unwashed are tired of paying multiple subscriptions for mediocre content generated by untalented woke writers who hate their audiences.

And its not only NFLX.

Ron DeSantis, the current governor of Florida and probable Republican nominee for President in 2024 is about to have Disneys special status removed.

From NBCh:

The legislation would dismantle Disneys special district on June 1, 2023. The district, which was created by a 1967 state law, allows Disney to self-govern by collecting taxes and providing emergency services. Disney controls about 25,000 acres in the Orlando area, and the district allows the company to build new structures and pay impact fees for such construction without the approval of a local planning commission.

The effort to eliminate Disneys district, known as the Reedy Creek Improvement District, comes after DeSantis began targeting the corporation over its leaders criticism of legislation he recently signed that would prevent classroom instruction on gender identity and sexual orientation in kindergarten through the third grade.

I cant believe theyre teaching that stuff that early anyway in the States.

But thats neither here nor there.

Whats pertinent is that parents, via their elected officials, are regaining control of whats entering their kids heads.

And that spells colossal trouble for Big Tech.

That, coupled with high inflation, means Im not a tech bull.

By the way, how are you enjoying your CNN+ subscription?

BAHAHAHAHAHA!

Putins Price Hike (GUFFAW!)

If there were ever a line that set off even the laziest bullshit-o-meter, its Putins Price Hike.

No one bought it for a second.

Im sure the White House interns were sitting around Grandpa Joes office helping him brainstorm - sorry, brain drizzle - a solution to the inflation problem.

Lets blame that on the Russians, too!

But the data says otherwise.

We know the government manipulates inflation data using harmonics, so the numbers would be even worse otherwise.

Liar, liar, Creepy Joes Pants are on fire!

Credit: Senate Republican Policy Committee

Its amazing what happens when you wont open the spigot for the Keystone XL pipeline, let your Fed Chairman print wildly, and give into the ESG crowd.

Again, if Build Back Better got through Congress, these numbers would be even more astronomical.

Powells Panic

Now, Jay Powell is pooping the bed.

Its glorious to behold.

He knows he left rates too low for too long, and now, like the numbskull he is, hes going to make up for it by hiking bigger, more quickly.

From the WSJ: It is appropriate in my view to be moving a little more quickly than the Fed has in the recent past, Mr. Powell said Thursday. I also think theres something in the idea of front-end loading those moves.

So do I, Jay I think frontloading will tank the stock market.

Yesterdays stock market moves seem to confirm my view.

Credit: Stockcharts.com

Oh boy

From the same WSJ article:

In prerecorded remarks at a separate conference on Thursday morning, Mr. Powell extolled the example of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who raised interest rates aggressively in the early 1980s to stamp out inflation.

Chair Volcker understood that expectations for inflation play a significant role in its persistence, said Mr. Powell. He therefore had to fight on two fronts: slaying, as he called it, the inflationary dragon and dismantling the publics belief that elevated inflation was an unfortunate, but immutable, fact of life.

He had to stay the course, Mr. Powell said.

If Powell had stayed the course at the end of 2018, wed be living in a different world now.

The Fed Funds target range right now is 0.25% to 0.50%.

If they raise by 50bps, that makes the range 0.75% to 1.00%.

That looks like nothing, but if you take the medians (0.375% and 0.875%), youre actually raising rates 2.33x!

There will be no soft landing.

Things will get ugly quickly.

Wrap Up

Its been a year filled with idiotic military strategy - their word, not mine - tech companies getting wrecked, and inept central bankers trying to make up for lost time.

Oh, and that little European war going on.

But from where Im sitting, its been one of the most rewarding, thrilling, and happiest years of my life.

Its a privilege to write for you everyday and I hope you enjoy our little ranting sessions.

Special thanks to Pam and Micah, Chris (my publisher), my fantastic network of friends who critique my work for free(!), and, of course, you!

Lets continue our journey together, hoping for better times.

In the meantime, have a wonderful weekend!

All the best,

Sean

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