COBRA June Portfolio Update

By Dan AmossPosted June 2, 2022

The Fed’s tightening campaign, plus the global challenge of high inflation, are the two dominant factors driving currency markets. If the Fed sees inflation expectations remaining high, it will feel compelled to keep tightening. Jim sees rising odds of a Fed policy error because it is tightening into a weakening economy. Also, in regards to our two open positions, sky-high oil, gas, and electricity prices make the U.K. and Japan vulnerable to a downturn. For now, Dan gives guidance on these positions, including moving both to a hold.

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Jim Rickards’ Tactical Currency Profits

Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which...

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C.O.B.R.A. Portfolio Update For July 1

By Dan AmossPosted July 1, 2021

In our first portfolio review, Jim’s fundamental analysis indicates that EWZ’s uptrend is likely to last through at least late July. EWZ’s buy window has passed, so don’t buy any more of this option. But we do recommend you hold what you have. Be ready for flash alerts to sell any position in the portfolio when market conditions or option pricing changes.

C.O.B.R.A. September Portfolio Update

By Dan AmossPosted September 2, 2021

A U.S. binge of Chinese-made goods in late 2020 and early 2021 caused an export boom. But there will be a hangover in U.S. consumption, and it will make China’s economy more dependent on internal dynamics. With China under pressure to devalue its currency, this dynamic is one of many reasons our system recently signaled a bearish trade on the China iShares (FXI). For now, Dan gives guidance on the open positions in your portfolio.

C.O.B.R.A. May Portfolio Update

By Dan AmossPosted May 5, 2022

History shows the Fed is slow, bureaucratic, and rarely aware of the impacts its actions have on stocks and investor psychology. Jim sees rising odds of a Fed policy error as the central bank tightens into a rapidly weakening economy. We are closely watching the reaction of major global currencies and stock markets to Wednesday’s Fed meeting. We like how we are positioned with our open positions that Dan gives guidance on in today’s update, including moving one position from a buy to a hold.

C.O.B.R.A. February Portfolio Update

By Dan AmossPosted February 3, 2022

Currency traders have spent the past few months adjusting portfolios to prepare for a tighter Fed. It’s not clear whether rate hikes from the Fed will move the U.S. Dollar Index higher as Jim is closely watching central bank policies, plus the other factors that drive currencies. You’ll be the first to know when his view on any specific currency changes. For now, Dan gives guidance on the open currency positions in the portfolio, including moving two trades to holds.

C.O.B.R.A. April Portfolio Update

By Dan AmossPosted April 7, 2022

One of the more interesting developments in the currency market over the past month has been the sharp decline in the Japanese yen. A weaker yen puts pressure on Japan’s export-driven competitors in South Korea and China to devalue their currencies. This is something we are watching regarding future trade recommendations. For now, Dan gives guidance on the currency positions in the portfolio, including two positions moving to holds.

C.O.B.R.A. October Portfolio Update

By Dan AmossPosted October 7, 2021

In the U.S., investor expectations for a tapering of the Fed’s QE program have been lifting the dollar against most other currencies. But new federal spending could result in a surge in new Treasury note yields and the Fed could alter its QE plans. For now, Dan gives guidance on the open positions in the portfolio.