Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

July Portfolio Update

JP Morgan raised its credit loss provision for the second quarter in a row, pointing to a rise in credit losses later this year. This is not good news for companies with weak balance sheets. We think we are well-positioned in our two open trades in the portfolio. For now, Dan gives guidance in this month’s portfolio review.

July Portfolio Update

Wednesday’s news of a 40-year high in the official inflation number of 9.1% is making headlines. As noted in last month’s portfolio update, we are in the early stages of a bear market. It’s likely to include harrowing declines and equally shocking rallies. But until the Fed changes its policy, the path of least resistance for most stocks is lower. For now, Dan gives guidance on our open recommendations in the portfolio, including moving three positions from a buy to a hold.

Buy Alert: An Oversold Gold Miner Ready To Bounce

Gold stocks continue to be pummeled as investors fear today’s high profit margins in the mining sector will vanish. But the moment the Fed signals a pause in rate hikes, demand for gold will rise along with beaten down gold stock prices. This month, Jim and Dan recommend a familiar stock to longtime Strategic Intelligence readers that has been oversold and is now positioned as a high-risk high-reward takeover target.

Sell Alert: Book Gains on Wynn Resorts Puts

Wynn’s stock fluctuates wildly on perceptions of Chinese consumer spending, outbound travel, and U.S.-China economic relations. Macau’s government has shut down the casino capital of Asia this week on COVID fears. WYNN stock has more downside, but our thesis has played out in the nick of time, ahead of expiration this Friday. Let’s take a nice gain after a wild ride.

MIDAS July Portfolio Update

It has been a brutal month and year for junior gold and silver mining stocks. The year has been a grind of little to no interest in the gold and silver sector. Investors at large seem interested in physical metals. However, demand for miners of these metals is lukewarm to non-existent. There are quite a few laggards that we are looking to cut from the portfolio during the next rally in gold and silver, but we also have promising developments at many companies in the open portfolio. Dan gives guidance in this month’s update, including moving one position to a hold.

COBRA July Portfolio Update

The Fed’s tightening campaign, plus the global challenge of high inflation, remain the two dominant factors driving currency markets. All eyes are on the Fed as its policy is restricting liquidity on Wall Street. The U.S. dollar has been rising sharply, acting like a wrecking ball. You’ll be the first to know once Jim sees a shift that’s powerful enough to impact the currency markets. For now, Dan gives guidance on the open positions in the portfolio, including moving two from a buy to a hold.

Trade Alert: How To Profit From IT Budget Cuts

The economy feels like it’s in a recession and budgets for technology hardware and software get cut in a global recession. U.S.-listed technology companies rely on sales to Japan, Europe, and even China for large shares of their total business. As these economies slow, it’s bound to hit tech earnings. Jim and Dan recommend put options on a fund that holds S&P 500 tech stocks and has more downside risk than upside potential as we head into earnings season.