Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Sell Alert: Take a 70% Gain on Netflix

We expected Netflix’s second quarter earnings report to call into question how much more revenue growth the company will have in the future – especially in the saturated U.S. market. The July 20 earnings report included weaker than expected earnings and revenue growth is slowing. We didn’t plan to hold this position very long after this report, so now is the time to close out the put spread after only ten days for a great annualized gain.

MIDAS Buy Alert: 280% Upside For This World-Class High-Grade Silver Project

In the race to attract investors’ capital, projects containing lots of high-grade ore have significant head starts over low-grade projects. Investors recognize the near certainty that an extremely high-grade project will become a very profitable mine in the future. Using the MIDAS system, Jim and Dan release a development-stage silver and gold producer with high-grade ore that will attract a loyal, growing shareholder base which will be reflected in higher share prices.

Sell Alert: Take a 70% Gain on Netflix

We expected Netflix’s second quarter earnings report to call into question how much more revenue growth the company will have in the future – especially in the saturated U.S. market. The July 20 earnings report included weaker than expected earnings and revenue growth is slowing. We didn’t plan to hold this position very long after this report, so now is the time to close out the put spread after only nine days for a great annualized gain.

Investor Expectations Have Become Delusional

One of the best pieces of evidence that we are close to a bull market peak are sentiment surveys which measure how high investors’ expectations have become. In today’s commentary, Dan reviews a recent sentiment survey and discusses why investor expectations of where future market valuations go from here have become delusional.

Dark Money Sell Alert: Take a 20% Gain On AEO Calls

When recommending AEO back in May, we reported the ongoing recovery in mall foot traffic could jolt the steady sales trend at American Eagle. More foot traffic could also turbocharge the rapid growth in Aerie sales. But there are rising fears that the delta variant of COVID will temporarily depress mall foot traffic. Our option is now far in the money but has been extra volatile over the past week, so we recommend selling this position now for a nice gain.

Sell Alert: Take an 88% Gain on Royal Caribbean Put Spread

Thanks to the constant need to refresh its ship fleet to keep customers happy in a competitive business, RCL is on a capital spending treadmill. It has been a persistent free cash flow burner. We are 20 calendar days into the trade, which is exactly 25% of the 80 days between trade entry and expiration. We have gained nearly 50% of our maximum potential profit (88%, versus a maximum 178%), so it makes sense to sell now.

MIDAS Sell Alert: Take A 33% Profit on Corvus Gold

A key part of our thesis on Corvus since last October was its attractiveness to an acquirer. On July 13, AngloGold made an acquisition offer. Although we think AngloGold is getting an excellent deal relative to the free cash flow that Corvus’s assets can produce in the years ahead, now is a good time to take a gain on a position that we’ve held through a difficult period for junior gold stocks. Dan recommends taking gains in KOR.

MIDAS July Portfolio Update

The U.S. dollar’s integrity will have to be sacrificed by the Fed and the Treasury to prop up all the mistakes made in the past – mistakes nurtured moral hazard, which in turn fueled fragile bubbles. If a correction in asset prices won’t be allowed and will be cut short by the Fed and the Treasury, this will come at the cost of wave after wave of monetary debasement. That’s why gold is a must-own portfolio asset. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in your Gold Speculator portfolio.