Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Dark Money Sell Alert: Take 49% Gains On Fluor Calls

Fluor still trades at an extreme discount to its peers in the E&C sector. Investors are starting to anticipate a growing project order backlog driven by smartly bid infrastructure, road, bridge, LNG, and metals/mining projects. However, the stock has encountered resistance and may be in a sideways pattern for a few months. We don’t want to risk losing option premium if FLR continues bouncing around in the low $20s, so let’s take gains on this position.

Strategic Intelligence April Portfolio Update

Most central bankers appear to believe that they’re “helping” the economy with hyper-aggressive policies. But they’re not. Instead, they’re fueling bubble activities that will harm the long-term health of the economy. The end result of this dynamic is a fragile, bubble-prone environment in which central banks react to every downturn in financial markets with easier policy. It’s a recipe to undermine the role of all paper currencies as stores of value. And it’s strengthening the case for owning precious metals. For now, read on as Dan gives guidance on all our open positions in the portfolio, including one position moved from a buy to a hold.

Take A 26% Profit on Fluor

FLR crashed in the two months after our recommendation last year. But, with the anticipation of more engineering work based on the current infrastructure proposal being negotiated in Washington, Fluor has had a remarkable recovery. So, let’s take profits today.

MIDAS April Portfolio Update

Since our last update, it has been a fairly quiet month in our portfolio. By far the biggest factor that can light a fire under our portfolio’s performance is a rebound in the prices of gold and silver. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the pen positions including moving our five original option positions to a hold.

Rapid Detonation Of Archegos Is A Stark Warning

In the current market environment, with investor positioning still lopsidedly bullish and highly leveraged shareholders like Archegos, it’s especially worthwhile to limit holdings to quality stocks trading at reasonable valuations. When markets become dominated by momentum traders, and value-conscious buyers are left in the dust, then the predictable result is near-vertical rallies followed by even faster crashes.

Reopening Plays Are Priced To Perfection

If an investor does not have context about the financial health of a company, then that investors might believe that changes in the fortunes of a company are the only thing that determine its stock price. But, a closer look at fundamentals can determine its direction more than just positive news about the sector overall.

MIDAS March Portfolio Update

The sooner investors realize that the Treasury and Fed have trapped themselves into permanent deficit spending and money printing, the sooner gold will start its next rally against the paper currency that underpins it all. It has been encouraging to see so many positions hold up fairly well in the face of relentless weakness in gold prices in February and March. Now is the time to take advantage of lower entry prices. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio.

Strategic Intelligence March Portfolio Update

As the debt and deficits grow at an unprecedented rate, the economic fallout has yet to be realized. Jim expects strong deflationary forces in the short run and even stronger inflationary pressure in the long run. The longer the Federal Reserve balance sheet grows and Congress authorizes more spending bills, the less flexibility the Fed will have to react to a future inflation surprise. The Fed won’t be able to defend the dollar’s value without sacrificing either the financial market bubble it has promoted or the easy financing terms it has set for the Treasury. For now, read on as Dan gives guidance on all our open positions in the portfolio.