Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Project Prophesy April Portfolio Update

As recession fears accelerate for the U.S. economy, earnings estimates look far too high for companies. As we approach earnings season in mid-April, we expect much lower estimates for our put positions. March was an excellent month for Project Prophesy trades, as we took fantastic gains on four of our positions. For now, read on as Dan reviews all our open positions, including two positions moving to a hold.

How Meal Delivery Kits Are Part of the Sugar-Rush Economy

Like sugar for humans, bubble-driven economies build up a tolerance for ever-higher doses of money and credit. Once economies fall into addiction, the long-term consequences are tragic: either a deflationary collapse or hyperinflation. An alternative path might be a policy that proactively weans the system from addiction, but such a policy is politically impossible. That’s why many companies today are part of the sugar-rush economy.

How Fed Money Printing Has Slowed Down the Bear Market

As investors assess the economic fallout from the pandemic, the Fed’s decision for unlimited quantitative easing has slowed down the liquidation of risky assets. But beware that the reassessment of the corporate earnings picture still lies in the future. More selling probably lies ahead — even if the next phase of selling isn’t as dramatic as it has been over the past month.

We Are Entering Corporate Triage

Today, many businesses face a shutdown of indefinite duration and an uncertain recovery afterward. These consumer-facing businesses are not designed or prepared for something like a coronavirus pandemic. Most operate on tight profit margins, have heavy capital requirements and are burdened with large debts. Dealing with how to help companies, you can think of corporate triage as policymakers deciding which companies get rescued and how they might get rescued.

How the Oil Price War Multiplied Stress on Stocks

A price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia roiled oil markets this week which added to the fear and volatility already on Wall Street due to the coronavirus outbreak. This resulted in a rush into U.S. Treasury bonds, which in turn puts even more pressure on bank profit margins by squeezing margins on loans and adds additional stress on the stock market overall.