Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

MIDAS May Portfolio Update

Gold rebounded nicely from its March lows, but it still has plenty of upside in the months ahead as interest rates remain low. Meanwhile, fears of inflation are stirring in the wake of the 4.2% CPI inflation number for April that was reported earlier this week. This could be a further catalyst for higher gold prices. For now, Dan gives guidance on all our open positions in the portfolio, including two positions being moved from buy status to a hold.

5X Rise In AMC Share Count Will Depress The Stock

In our recent buy alert, we detailed just how rapidly AMC share count has grown in recent quarters. In fact, the share count is nearly five times what it was in mid-2020. We think the weight of all its new shares should be a depressant acting on AMC’s stock price in the weeks ahead, so we recommend starting a position in this put spread if you don’t already have one.

Strategic Intelligence May Portfolio Update

Gold and silver stocks were weak for most of the first quarter, but had a strong rebound in April and early May. Through all of this, the case for owning gold and silver got better even as prices corrected. That’s why we recommended precious metals stocks so often in recent months. For now, read on as Dan reviews all the open positions in the portfolio, including moving one recommendation from a buy to a hold.

Dark Money Sell Alert: Take 14% Gains on L Brands Calls

LB stock had been rising steadily until an abrupt decline this morning on news that the board will move ahead with a tax-free spinoff of Victoria’s Secret as a separate public company. When complete, current shareholders will own a lower-priced stock in LB, plus they will receive what is essentially a large one-time dividend of shares in the new public company. This should cause a large, automatic adjustment to LB call options by August. Considering all this, we recommend locking in a solid gain on your position.

Indigestion Hits Chipotle Shareholders

It’s one thing to pay a high valuation for an early-stage, high-growth company, provided investors are willing to hold the stock long enough. It’s quite another thing to pay a high valuation for a mature company in a competitive, low-margin industry. Our latest recommendation with CMG falls under the latter as customer loyalty will be tested soon.