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Dan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Rickards’ Crypto Profits Portfolio Update

The crypto space continues to recover as bitcoin rallied over the past month. But sustaining that rally will be difficult with many obstacles facing bitcoin bulls. Investing in stocks related to the expanding blockchain ecosystem is a good alternative to new cryptocurrency investments due to the “bitcoin beta” effect. For now, read on for analysis on all open positions in our portfolio…

Currency War With China Will Intensify

As the trade war intensifies, a currency devaluation could be the next retaliation from China. This would result in lowering China’s buying power in the global economy and cause a deflationary shock for the world. As Dan explains, China cannot both maintain its exchange rate to the dollar and continue to prop up its fragile banking system. The resulting yuan devaluation would be a major offensive in the ongoing currency war with the U.S.

IMPACT Portfolio Update

Trade war negotiations took a step back last week as China reportedly reversed commitments given on core U.S. trade demands. With President Trump threatening to add tariff increases of $200 billion on Chinese imports, this move would certainly be met with retaliation by China. This sequence has brought renewed volatility to the markets. We will closely monitor events and send out a flash alert if news directly affects any of our recommendations. For now, read on for Dan’s analysis of all positions in the portfolio.

What the Trade War Means for Construction Equipment Stocks

As markets react to the ominous direction of trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, stocks that depend on exports have been hit hard recently. This includes construction equipment stocks that will experience head winds in a recession environment, as equipment prices will be very quick to fall at the first sign of demand weakness. Dan analyzes this sector of the market ahead of the earnings report for one of our positions in the portfolio.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

Market conditions have been unusually pleasant thus far in 2019. But if the Fed doesn’t ease policy by cutting rates soon, stocks are facing a storm. Stocks and bonds could both see more volatility in the weeks ahead as investors push back expectations on rate cuts. This could affect positions in our portfolio, so we will keep you informed with flash alerts as market conditions change. For now, read on for Dan’s analysis on all open recommendations…

Why Hong Kong Could Be the Next Big Short

The Hong Kong dollar has been steadily pegged to the U.S. dollar for decades. But with a tightening of liquidity in Hong Kong’s banking system, this puts pressure on Hong Kong markets and a break in this peg could be coming in the months ahead. As Dan explains, this could make Hong Kong the next big short in which the HKD peg breaks and put options on one ETF could bring great returns for savvy investors.