Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Project Prophesy July Portfolio Update

Many stocks have corrected since our last portfolio update in early June. The selling has been concentrated in sectors that are most exposed to travel, tourism, and discretionary spending. With a worsening pandemic and high deficits, we expect further upside in gold prices and gold stocks as well as more downside for stocks which have risen far beyond their earnings prospects. For now, Dan reviews all the open positions in the portfolio, including three gold mining stocks that continue to rise in price.

Apple Is Rotten at Today’s Valuation

As we approach second-quarter earnings season in July and August, it’s important to recognize that expectations for future earnings reported by the biggest public companies have never been higher. By ignoring the effects of the coronavirus lockdowns and a spike in unemployment that affect earnings growth, investors in mega-cap companies have set themselves up for disappointment.

Dark Money Sell Alert: Let’s Book 25% Gains on Conagra Calls

With consumers shifting their buying habits to preparing more food at home, current and prospective CAG shareholders are focusing on the likelihood that this trend will take market share for years into the future from the overbuilt restaurant space. The stock hit a new 52-week high after reporting fiscal fourth quarter earnings, so let’s book 25% gains today.

Let’s Book 47% Gains on Maxar

The recent Vricon acquisition by Maxar was celebrated by investors in the space intelligence sector with a pop in its stock price. The market often misprices a company’s business initially and quickly revalues it to the upside or downside. So, with the recent surge in MAXR after only two months, let’s take gains on this position today.

Let’s Book 47% Gains on Maxar

The recent Vricon acquisition by Maxar was celebrated by investors in the space intelligence sector with a pop in its stock price. The market often misprices a company’s business initially and quickly revalues it to the upside or downside. So, with the recent surge in MAXR after only two months, let’s take gains on this position today.

Warning: Investors Feel Bulletproof Yet Again

Investors feel bulletproof yet again, extremely confident that the bear market is over because “the Fed has their back.” But what ultimately “has the back” of bullish investors is the supply of new money that comes from other bullish investors. Yet that supply, which includes buying pressure from high-frequency trading, can turn on a dime once momentum shifts and prices can fall sharply as a result.

Why the Fed Is Not a Magic Money Tree

In the latest Fed action, buying essentially the same amount of U.S. Treasury securities as have been issued has taken pressure to fund mammoth federal deficits off of the private sector. But at what cost? The threat of inflation or stagflation means owning gold and gold-related assets is the best protection against the damage that the Fed and the federal government are inflicting on holders of paper dollars.

Investors Can’t Ignore Balance Sheets Forever

As economies reopen, revenues bounce and jobs return, many deferred payments will become due as well. Investors will soon recognize the risks of owning shares in companies that have borrowed heavily to tide themselves over. The debt burdens at companies with weak earnings fundamentals tend to squash shareholders over time. So investors should be wary of any uptick in risk aversion that could cause a stock to crash very quickly.

Strategic Intelligence June Portfolio Update

The current economic environment warrants lower-than-normal valuations in the stock market. But instead, bull market sentiment is as euphoric as ever, and valuations have ramped up to near all-time highs just as the earnings stream that supports the market has collapsed. With so many insolvent companies in many sectors, the corporate default rate will remain very high in the months ahead. This bodes well for gold and gold mining stocks. For now, Dan gives guidance on all our open positions in the portfolio, including one recent position moving from a buy to a hold.