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Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

What Is Scarcer: Oil or Printed Money?

The plentiful global oil supply is often taken for granted, but a stark reminder of the vulnerability of the oil market was exposed in last weekend’s attack on Saudi Arabian facilities. Businesses are much more influenced by oil prices than if their credit line were one percentage point lower, as it is much easier to print new money than to sustain enough oil production to satisfy global demand.

New Prophesy Buy: This Trade Has 300% Upside as Tech Rally Runs its Course

With the global economy slowing down and government antitrust action ramping up, Big Tech have been under pressure recently. Using our uniquie Project Prophesy indicator, Jim and Dan have identified one technology-heavy index as the best way to profit from continued headwinds to the tech sector that creates a downward trend for stock prices as a result.

Central Banks Running out of Reputational Ammunition

With two significant central bank meetings happening within a week, Wall Street is looking for a combination of rate cuts and more QE. Also, expectations for a favorable resolution to the U.S.-China trade war are high. If central banks do not play their hands correctly, their reputation ammunition will be used up before the next financial crisis when they will really need it.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

Although economic headwinds caused volatility in stocks during August, markets took just a small loss. Be cautious, though, as stocks are typically the last asset class to price in economic slowdowns. For now, read on for Dan’s analysis on all open recommendations in the portfolio, including a sell recommendation on one long-held position.

Conditions Are Ripe for a Crash

There are specific conditions where a market crash is highly likely to occur. This likelihood increases when most traders are playing similar strategies and have the same expectations for their investments. This creates a market that while setting new all-time highs, becomes increasingly fragile. When conditions abruptly change, bulls panic and prices can fall sharply.

Why Stocks Must Fall Before the Next Big Rally

In his Jackson Hole speech last week, Fed Chairman Powell said he is waiting for data to confirm a slowdown before future rate cuts. It may be why President Trump is being more aggressive in the trade war with China. This aggressiveness will push stocks lower in the near term to get more rates cuts and the next rally as a result. Also, an update on our latest trade in the portfolio.

Radical Central Bank Experiments Are Suffocating the Global Banking System

Conditions in the global banking system have worsened dramatically since June. Yields are falling to deeply negative levels, which means inevitable bankruptcy for creditors like banks, insurance companies, pension funds and pensioners themselves. Failure of central banks to exit from radical monetary experiments will cause popular stocks to suffer but gold/silver mining stock prices to rise.