Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Markets May Feel the Bern Starting on Monday

As the Iowa caucuses near, many projections call for Bernie Sanders to come out on top. Any momentum that Sanders gets with a win in Iowa (and New Hampshire) could make investors uneasy at the prospect of falling profits for most companies — particularly in the health care sector. This could be a perfect setup for betting against health care stocks in the short term while the probability of a Sanders nomination is sorted out.

Yes, Public Companies Can Still Go Bankrupt During QE

Many investors believe as long as the Fed is printing money through QE or repo lending, stocks are insulated and will remain bullish. But good fundamentals and consistent profits must happen for market gains to continue. Even though investor risk appetites are high even in credit markets, companies that are highly leveraged and burning through cash are still vulnerable to bankruptcy.

A Road Map for Investing in the 2020s

With record highs in the markets, investors are understandably euphoric as stock valuations are rich. But factors could change during the new decade that could affect market performance. Will strong fundamentals return as a gauge for investing, or will the trend of central bank manipulation continue the bullish environment for stocks? Preparing for new risks is key for successful investing in the 2020s.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

The stock market continues reaching record highs as we move into the new year. Stock valuations are rich despite the warning signs of an economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and geopolitical tensions. With large-cap stocks overextended, keep an eye on stocks with low expectations to outperform them. For now, read on for Dan’s review of all the open positions in the portfolio, including a moving two stocks to hold.

What Will Ultimately End the Market Rally

The bull market has rolled on despite warning signals, including a global economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and ongoing trade talk tensions with China. A primary reason for this involves Fed balance sheet policy, which has caused stocks to run ahead of their earnings potential and fundamentals. This has made many stocks vulnerable to a downturn in the coming year.

A Phase One Trade De‌al Is Only the End of the Beginning

U.S.-China trade talks got a lift with the announcement of a closure on phase one of the deal. This is a win for U.S. farmers, as China promises to buy more agricultural products from the U.S. in exchange for lower tariffs. But the focus will now shift toward the far more deeply rooted areas of disagreement between the negotiating parties as the U.S.’ and China’s roles as global leaders will come more into focus.