Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

The coronavirus contagion has resulted in one of the fastest market corrections in history. We expect even more volatility ahead caused by the continued viral spread along with the downward trend in Treasury yields. For now, read on for Dan’s review of our portfolio, including three positions moving to a hold.

Special Lifetime Member Update: Take a 573% Gain on XLV Puts

In the last lifetime members-only briefing held in January, Jim discussed the economic implications of a Bernie Sanders victory on the healthcare industry. The stock recommendations that Dan provided on the call are up substantially so we recommend locking in profits on the short positions before a market bounce as the Fed will likely intervene. Receiving extra recommendations is an exclusive bonus of being a lifetime member so congratulations on your gains!

Dark Money Sell Alert: Let’s Take 175% Profits on Boeing Today!

However the coronavirus crisis plays out, it’s clear that it’s already had a damaging impact on the financial health of airlines — especially the least healthy airlines. In the past week, investors have started to recognize that the viral outbreak will hurt the financial health of Boeing’s customer base as its stock price has fallen below $300 to a valuation that’s starting to price in its risks. So, let’s take 175% gains now on this put position.

Volatility Makes a Comeback

We have seen a big jump in the VIX index in the past two weeks. This is primarily due to investors heavily exposed in momentum stocks rushing for the exits as concerns over the coronavirus outbreak escalate. This “herd mentality” creates problems when the population of new buyers looking to buy momentum stocks runs out and prices fall as a result.

Coronavirus Starts to Hit Tech Hardware Stocks

With the news that Apple Inc. has cut its revenue guidance due to the coronavirus outbreak, other tech hardware companies will suffer from both its supply chain and from lower demand for hard drives within China. This includes our latest play on Seagate Technology that has suffered unrelenting revenue declines in the past several years.

The Perils of Shorting Volatility

The perception of a limitless “Fed put” has encouraged investors to become dangerously overconfident by shorting volatility. But there are risks by doing this. When the short volatility trade unwinds due to a catalyst that’s not easily identifiable in advance, there could be a major reversal of the S&P 500 and in public perception that central bankers are all-powerful superheroes.