Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Why Carvana is Not the Next Amazon

One key to distinguishing the failure of a company that truly has the potential to mimic a younger Amazon is whether or not that company’s business model is easily copied. Carvana’s model is much more capital-intensive than a young Amazon was, and any number of catalysts could break the Carvana stock bubble in the coming weeks. That’s why we are holding a bearish option position in the portfolio.

Wynn’s Tornado of Adverse Events Continues

Shares of casino owner Wynn Resorts Ltd., our latest short idea, continue to lag the market for very good reasons. Wynn faces a triple tornado of adverse events. These include the pandemic, the resulting economic depression and trouble for their Macau location. A rebound will surely arrive, but how large it will be is unclear. As revenues decline and debt load rises, these headwinds will continue to put downward pressure on its stock price.

Take a 53% Gain on Coeur Mining

Coeur delivered some decent numbers in their latest earnings report although their balance sheet is not in the best condition. Management has implemented a hedge that will lock in prices to fund a mining expansion. CDE shareholders will only benefit from about half of growth in revenue if gold prices keep rallying. With a recent strong rally combined with its hedging policy, lets take gains on this position now.

Book a 22% Gain on Nomad Foods

We’ve held Nomad Foods in our portfolio for a few years and it’s one of the best-positioned food stocks on the market. Being a leading frozen food producer, this sector has proven to be resilient during the pandemic. Nomad reported excellent financial results this morning and shares have risen to the point of being overbought, so let’s book gains on this position now.

Why Live Nation Trades at a Bubble Valuation

Estimates for a recovery in entertainment live events that Live Nation promotes look far too aggressive. Investors seem to forget that the coronavirus shutdowns aren’t the only thing impacting concert sales. High unemployment and precautionary savings will also hamper concert attendance going forward. Investors are likely to realize that a recovery in Live Nation’s earnings is far in the future and put downward pressure on the stock.