Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Why Retail Investors Refuse to Join the Melt-Up

As baby boomers approach retirement, the older demographic of investors is a headwind for U.S. equity markets due to a more conservative approach to investments. In fact, the demographic-driven rotation from stock funds to bond funds is likely to accelerate rather than reverse. In fact, more companies are now using bond offerings to build up cash reserves ahead of a potential recession.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

The stock market had a good November as prices moved upward for the month. However, bulls might be disappointed in the end result, as recent Fed action is a defensive move against an ongoing global slowdown and the trade war continues to linger with no resolution in sight. For now, read on for Dan’s update of all open positions in the portfolio as macroeconomic events are affecting several of our put trades.

A Welcome Sign: Gold Miners Get Focused on Shareholder Value

When industries experience long bull markets in their sector, most stocks in that industry are operated by complacent executives. Conversely, when industries suffer in extended bear markets, management becomes more focused and disciplined in creating value for shareholders. That’s good news for gold mining stocks as they have become leaner and less complacent during bad times as miners enter a new gold bull market environment.

Why It Pays to Follow Leading Economic Indicators

When making investment decisions, many investors look at what the GDP and unemployment numbers of the past quarters were to evaluate the overall economy. But using leading economic indicators gives a forward-looking snapshot and a more accurate look at where an economy is headed. Most of the current trends in the leading indicators show a slowdown in the U.S. economy for the quarters ahead despite the mainstream media headlines of record-breaking stock prices.

Oversaturation of Food Delivery Apps Slams Grubhub

Food delivery apps are a form of restaurant sector disruption and have been highly popular with diners in recent years. However, oversaturation of these apps has led to intense competition and a stunning crash of Grubhub stock in late October. This overinvestment will result in consumers benefiting at the expense of the app companies and restaurants, which will continue putting pressure on their stock prices.

Lock in a 10% Return on EnerSys

Despite lackluster third quarter earnings reports, investors are piling into stocks. But such a bullish environment is unlikely to last. With a less than impressive quarterly report last week, one of our positions still ralled due to the broad stock market upward trend so let’s take gains now before a downturn.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

Stock valuations have spiked recently from already high levels as investors expect a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war along with an anticipation of further Fed rate cuts. For now, read on for Dan’s analysis on all open recommendations in the portfolio as earnings guidance has arrived for many of our plays.

The Evidence Is in: Gold Miner Profitability Surges

The recent gold bull market is delivering nice returns for gold mining stocks. Miners spent years cutting costs in the face of low prices and now are reaping the rewards of revenue increases as operating income surges. If gold prices trend higher through year-end, look for many miners to easily surpass revenue goals and create excellent returns for patient investors.

Why a VIX Spike Causes Bids for Stocks to Disappear

The VIX, or volatility index, is a valuable indicator of stress within capital markets. When the index spikes, bids for stocks are dropped, which can cause prices to plummet overnight. When a geopolitical crisis causes higher volatility, there are few buyers anymore looking to bid for value stocks on weakness. As a result, the VIX can quickly overwhelm other factors and lead to abrupt declines in the major stock indexes.