Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

How the Market Is Primed for a Catastrophic Collapse

As we look ahead to the Fed’s July 31 meeting, it’s clear that the Fed will cut rates. While stocks almost always rise in the weeks after a cut, they can fall sharply thereafter if it coincides with recessionary conditions. As Jim details in his new book Aftermath, a market crash could arrive at any point. You can prepare by allocating extra cash in your portfolio as well as adequate exposure to precious metals.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

Investors remain bullish in the U.S. stock markets despite forward earnings estimates drifting lower week by week. As a new wave of earnings reports emerges in the second half of the year, estimates could accelerate to the downside. As a result, investors should be prepared for weakness in stocks and a sharp rise in gold. For now, read on for Dan’s analysis on all open recommendations in the portfolio.

American Airlines Is a Recession Away From Bankruptcy

Airline stocks appear to be morphing from solid investments into value traps. In particular, American Airline bulls assume the business is not as cyclical as it used to be, thanks to a more consolidated industry. But we already have plenty of evidence that the airline profit cycle is a few years past its peak and a recession will push American into financial distress.

Why PG&E Shareholders Own More Liabilities Than Assets

As PG&E goes through the bankruptcy process, shareholders will find the utility company’s assets are likely worth less than its liabilities. As a result, there’s a very good chance PCG stock will likely go to zero or a tiny fraction of its current trading price. Today, Dan examines its balance sheet and why assets aren’t worth as much as bulls expect.