Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Rising Oil Prices Are Doing The Fed’s Job: Tightening

As the Fed prepares to raise rates this year, many investors worry about a market correction. But consumers should be more worried about rising oil prices, which matter more to the real economy. If global oil supplies are as tight as we expect, it would box the Fed (and investors who are not prepared) into only bad and worse outcomes. Dan gives commentary on how higher oil prices will also benefit our current put position with American Airlines and other consumer discretionary stocks.

C.O.B.R.A. Sell Alert: Sell South Korea Puts For A Small Loss

EWY’s component stocks are exposed to weakness in global trade. Although South Korea’s exports are still growing, the growth rate is slowing sharply. EWY has held up better than we had expected. But its decline in recent days has taken it back to the lower end of its multi-week trading range. So, let’s exit this put position for a small loss before Friday’s expiration.

Sell Alert: Take a 23% Gain On Northrop Grumman

Heightened geopolitical tensions around Russia and Ukraine have reminded investors that governments around the world are unlikely to cut defense budgets anytime soon. In the past six weeks, NOC has jumped from $350 to $400, closing much of the gap with our price target. But with the S&P 500 likely entering a period of higher volatility as the Fed tightens policy, we recommend taking profits now on this position.

Midas January Portfolio Update

Some factors are moving in gold’s favor in 2022, including a reduction of COVID risks in gold-importing nations like India. And the monetary factors driving gold are as bullish as ever. Also, if U.S. retail investors, financial advisors and institutions rekindle their interest in gold and gold ETFs, gold prices may have to rise substantially to ration supply. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio, including two moved from a buy to a hold.

January Portfolio Update

January is off to a good start for targeted bearish trades, like those we make in Crash Speculator. Thus far, the indexes and large cap stocks have held up. But that could change in first quarter earnings season. If management attitudes about 2022 are cautious, many stocks could fall substantially. For now, Dan gives guidance on all open positions in the portfolio, including one position expiring on January 21.

Trade Alert: A Buyout Target In The Gold Royalty Space

The Fed thinks it can tighten policy without harming the stock market. If they are wrong, gold prices will rise because investors would start to price in the next round of dollar debasement. That’s why buying gold stocks now, ahead of the next gold rally, makes sense. Jim and Dan recommend a gold-focused royalty and streaming company with a revenue growth acceleration coming in 2022, which makes it an attractive buyout target for an established mining company.

January Portfolio Update

Gold and gold stocks have held up very well considering how rapidly Treasury bond yields have risen thus far in 2022. We have high expectations for our gold-heavy list of recommendations this year. There is little new to report from the company level. We will have much more information in the February portfolio update once the bulk of quarterly earnings season has passed. For now, Dan gives guidance on the open positions in the portfolio.

Sell Alert: Take 98% Profit On ARK Innovation ETF Puts

Investors holding high-valuation tech stocks have started worrying that higher Treasury yields reduce the present value of cash flows that are expected to arrive far in the future. Tech stocks are leading the market to the downside, and so-called value sectors like financials are doing well. Pricing is high for ARKK puts. Considering time to expiration and our put’s price, we recommend locking in gain now.

C.O.B.R.A. January Portfolio Update

Currency traders continue to focus mostly on Fed policy and Jim thinks the Fed is tightening into a slowing economy. Tightening into weakness is what economists call a “policy mistake.” These episodes tend to be bullish for Treasury bonds, cash, gold, the U.S. dollar index, and select currencies like the Japanese yen. Fed policy mistakes are bearish for most other types of assets, so buckle up for more volatility. For now, Dan updates you on the open positions in the portfolio.