Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Is the Fed Bluffing About Buying Junk Bonds?

In an April 9 announcement, the Fed pledged to provide support to risky corners of financial markets that have been some of the hardest hit. But the central bank isn’t supposed to buy bonds that have credit risk. Are they bluffing? Precious metals rose sharply in the days following the announcement and would rise yet again if the Fed were to start buying corporate bonds aggressively.

Brace Yourself for April Earnings Season

One cannot observe all the disruption that’s happened to a fragile, complex system like the global economy and realistically conclude that it will be “back to business as usual” at the flip of a switch. Many companies are reporting first-quarter earnings by late April and investors are bracing for the worst as the economic fallout from the pandemic hits corporate America.

This Trend Points to a Multiyear Rise in Gold

As more investors recognize the paradigm shift in U.S. budget deficits that has occurred recently, they’ll question the habit of holding too much cash in dollar bank deposits, which might not pay any interest for the next decade or more. Some will take action by bidding for gold with a small percentage of their savings. The net effect on the relatively small market for gold could be very powerful.

Project Prophesy April Portfolio Update

As recession fears accelerate for the U.S. economy, earnings estimates look far too high for companies. As we approach earnings season in mid-April, we expect much lower estimates for our put positions. March was an excellent month for Project Prophesy trades, as we took fantastic gains on four of our positions. For now, read on as Dan reviews all our open positions, including two positions moving to a hold.

How Meal Delivery Kits Are Part of the Sugar-Rush Economy

Like sugar for humans, bubble-driven economies build up a tolerance for ever-higher doses of money and credit. Once economies fall into addiction, the long-term consequences are tragic: either a deflationary collapse or hyperinflation. An alternative path might be a policy that proactively weans the system from addiction, but such a policy is politically impossible. That’s why many companies today are part of the sugar-rush economy.