Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Take a 53% Gain on Coeur Mining

Coeur delivered some decent numbers in their latest earnings report although their balance sheet is not in the best condition. Management has implemented a hedge that will lock in prices to fund a mining expansion. CDE shareholders will only benefit from about half of growth in revenue if gold prices keep rallying. With a recent strong rally combined with its hedging policy, lets take gains on this position now.

Book a 22% Gain on Nomad Foods

We’ve held Nomad Foods in our portfolio for a few years and it’s one of the best-positioned food stocks on the market. Being a leading frozen food producer, this sector has proven to be resilient during the pandemic. Nomad reported excellent financial results this morning and shares have risen to the point of being overbought, so let’s book gains on this position now.

Project Prophesy August Portfolio Update

Since our last update in early July, most stocks have risen sharply, ignoring the reality that large chunks of the global economy are being sustained by government stimulus programs. Tech stocks continue to be the hot sector on Wall Street while many gold stocks remain unpopular even with gold reaching an important psychological level of $2,000. Gold stocks could rise very sharply if investors start reallocating more money in the mining sector. For now, Dan gives his guidance on all our open positions.

Why Live Nation Trades at a Bubble Valuation

Estimates for a recovery in entertainment live events that Live Nation promotes look far too aggressive. Investors seem to forget that the coronavirus shutdowns aren’t the only thing impacting concert sales. High unemployment and precautionary savings will also hamper concert attendance going forward. Investors are likely to realize that a recovery in Live Nation’s earnings is far in the future and put downward pressure on the stock.

Dark Money Sell Alert: Cut Losses on Lattice Semiconductor Puts

Profits for the semiconductor sector have been decent thus far in July, but nowhere near high enough to justify where the stocks are trading. It’s likely that the sector is over-earning as a temporary surge in demand for consumer electronics has pulled forward demand from the future. Shareholders seem content to hold the stock of this non-growing semiconductor company, so we recommend you cut losses and sell now.

Why Stimulus is Fueling Gold, not the Economy

A decade of near-constant monetary stimulus from central banks has taught us that quantitative easing is an addictive substance. And repeated doses of fiscal and monetary stimulus make economies more fragile over time. This realization has driven up the price of gold and silver ETFs as investors seek safe-haven assets and long-time holders of precious metals are demanding higher and higher bids from new buyers to part with their metals.

Hotel Supply Glut Hampers Hilton Recovery

As we analyze the fallout of the economic shutdown, it is clear people are avoiding high-density locations including hotels, resorts and theme parks. With travel increasingly difficult due to cutbacks in transportation options and quarantines, hotels like Hilton are facing a multi-year drought in demand, pricing power, and earnings which will hamper their recovery.