Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

What Happens If The Fed Put Is Exercised?

Years of easy Federal Reserve policy and dip buying have led to a mass delusion that the Fed won’t let stocks fall very much. This is the so-called “Fed put.” In this belief system, investors can go hog wild taking risk because they can ultimately “put” their shares to the Fed, which has implicitly written a put option on the stock market. One day, the Fed put will be harshly tested, and it may feel obligated to step up and buy stocks, but might be limited in the actions it can take.

What Bubble Stocks And Bitcoin Have In Common

Bubble stocks and Bitcoin are two categories of speculative assets that have so many parallels. The longer today’s stock market bubble environment persists, the more damage it’s going to inflict on the future economy. In addition, extreme risk-taking is spreading from day traders to corporate boardrooms as many company treasurers are now speculating on Bitcoin with scarce shareholder capital.

Big Tech: A Model Of Cooperation or Coercion?

Big companies tend to become more bureaucratic and inflexible after they’ve reached a certain size. Too much success or temporary market dominance can cause these companies to get complacent and forget that they exist to serve customers. With recent action taken by Big Tech, they run the risk of not providing enough value to their customers and user bases, which can result in lost revenue. Although seemingly impervious to any threat, their stocks can fall just as quickly as they rose.

Two More Positions To Sell In A Strong Market

Although we think AEM will perform well over the long term, we see better value in other large cap gold miners so let’s sell for gains today. Also, considering TEAF’s large discount to net asset value and its high distribution yield, we expected it to deliver a 30% total return over a year-long holding period. But, it has returned almost what we expected over an entire year in less than three months. So, let’s take a gain on this position today as well.

MIDAS January Portfolio Update

The breakeven inflation rate has been rising steadily because investors are expecting plenty of inflation over the next decade – even if we see scant “official” inflation in the near term. Since Jim expects stimulus programs to stimulate inflation, and not real economic growth, the TIPS market and the gold market should benefit. For now, Dan updates the latest developments for all our open positions in the portfolio.