Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Cruise Industry Overcapacity On The Horizon

One way to gain confidence in the pricing power of a specific type of business is to understand factors like spare capacity. Another way is to study the history of price changes in response to changes in supply and demand. In a post-COVID world, overcapacity is likely to haunt the cruise industry as capacity outpaces demand. It will have a depressing impact on stock prices unless much more capacity is removed in the years ahead.

C.O.B.R.A. Portfolio Update For July 1

In our first portfolio review, Jim’s fundamental analysis indicates that EWZ’s uptrend is likely to last through at least late July. EWZ’s buy window has passed, so don’t buy any more of this option. But we do recommend you hold what you have. Be ready for flash alerts to sell any position in the portfolio when market conditions or option pricing changes.

The Necessity For Fed Easing Is Good For Gold

With massive spending continuing in Washington, federal deficits will remain extremely high. In order to fund these deficits at rates that the government (and the broader financial system) can afford, continued Fed QE will be seen to be necessary. As a result, the U.S. dollar cannot be relied upon as a store of value. And when the dollar ceases to be a store of value, gold becomes the ultimate store of value.

MIDAS Buy Alert: 470% Potential In The Prolific Abitibi Greenstone Belt

When looking for mining stock investments, two things to look for are favorable regions with an historical high output of gold and a CEO with an excellent track record of value creation. This month’s recommendation has both. Using the MIDAS system, Jim and Dan release an undiscovered story of a junior gold miner that is your opportunity to make a high potential multi-year investment with multi-bagger upside.

Sell Alert: Take a 55% Gain on American Airlines Put Spread

AAL rallied to $26 a few days after our alert, then headed lower rapidly. This past Sunday brought news that American is cutting some of its summer flight schedule in the U.S. due primarily to a shortage of pilots, flight crews and ground support personnel. Let’s take advantage of trouble with AAL’s operations by exiting both legs of this trade today for a nice gain.

Inflation Boosts Costs, Not Just Revenue

With all the media attention on booming consumer spending and demand for certain items, it’s easy to forget about supply. Supplies of goods and services don’t just magically appear. Supply requires a productive workforce and regular capital investments to replace depreciated capital goods. With demand not being met with supply chain challenges, a business bottom line can suffer as well as their stock price.