Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

What Will Ultimately End the Market Rally

The bull market has rolled on despite warning signals, including a global economic slowdown, lower corporate earnings and ongoing trade talk tensions with China. A primary reason for this involves Fed balance sheet policy, which has caused stocks to run ahead of their earnings potential and fundamentals. This has made many stocks vulnerable to a downturn in the coming year.

A Phase One Trade De‌al Is Only the End of the Beginning

U.S.-China trade talks got a lift with the announcement of a closure on phase one of the deal. This is a win for U.S. farmers, as China promises to buy more agricultural products from the U.S. in exchange for lower tariffs. But the focus will now shift toward the far more deeply rooted areas of disagreement between the negotiating parties as the U.S.’ and China’s roles as global leaders will come more into focus.

Why Retail Investors Refuse to Join the Melt-Up

As baby boomers approach retirement, the older demographic of investors is a headwind for U.S. equity markets due to a more conservative approach to investments. In fact, the demographic-driven rotation from stock funds to bond funds is likely to accelerate rather than reverse. In fact, more companies are now using bond offerings to build up cash reserves ahead of a potential recession.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

The stock market had a good November as prices moved upward for the month. However, bulls might be disappointed in the end result, as recent Fed action is a defensive move against an ongoing global slowdown and the trade war continues to linger with no resolution in sight. For now, read on for Dan’s update of all open positions in the portfolio as macroeconomic events are affecting several of our put trades.

A Welcome Sign: Gold Miners Get Focused on Shareholder Value

When industries experience long bull markets in their sector, most stocks in that industry are operated by complacent executives. Conversely, when industries suffer in extended bear markets, management becomes more focused and disciplined in creating value for shareholders. That’s good news for gold mining stocks as they have become leaner and less complacent during bad times as miners enter a new gold bull market environment.

Why It Pays to Follow Leading Economic Indicators

When making investment decisions, many investors look at what the GDP and unemployment numbers of the past quarters were to evaluate the overall economy. But using leading economic indicators gives a forward-looking snapshot and a more accurate look at where an economy is headed. Most of the current trends in the leading indicators show a slowdown in the U.S. economy for the quarters ahead despite the mainstream media headlines of record-breaking stock prices.