Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Take a 35% Gain On CF Industries

Last May, we issued a $93 price target for CF, which was based on realistic assumptions for future revenue and profit margins. In just seven months, CF has sprinted higher, closing much of the ground between our $53 entry and our price target. We will follow the company, update our view, and may revisit the stock in the future – especially if a broad market sell-off pushes the stock lower in the short-term. But for now, after a nice rally into year-end 2021, we have a good exit point and recommend taking profits.

Sell Alert: Take A 110% Gain on Turkey iShares Put Spread

The humanitarian crisis is getting worse in Turkey. If capital controls are implemented, the NYSE may temporarily suspend trading in the TUR ETF. In that case, our TUR put spread would still have value at settlement in February. But trading in options on TUR would be less liquid. Let’s take a nice gain in this position after holding for less than four weeks.

MIDAS December Portfolio Update

Gold miners are earning fantastic profit margins in 2021 with gold in the $1,800 range. Their margins could rise further on the structural damage that’s being inflicted on the U.S. dollar by both Congress and the Fed. Since the gold market is tiny relative to the broader stock and bond markets, when these portfolio shifts are made, gold can rise very quickly on a small increase in demand. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio.

December Portfolio Update

We had a nice trade exit in mid-November, and we hope many of our trades were valuable hedges for your portfolio in 2021. Our new Crash Alert put strategy will be even more effective if we encounter a tougher environment for the stock indices in 2022 (which we expect). For now, Dan gives guidance on the remaining open position in the portfolio from our previous bear put strategy.

December Portfolio Update

We had a few nice trade exits in mid-November, and we hope many of our trades were valuable hedges for your portfolio in 2021. This put spread strategy will be even more effective if we encounter a tougher environment for the stock indices in 2022 (which we expect). For now, Dan gives guidance on all open positions in the portfolio, including two underwater positions expiring on Dec. 17.

Gold Timer Buy Alert: This Gold Miner Is Too Cheap To Ignore

When a gold producer is trading at a steep discount, it becomes attractive as an acquisition to a large gold miner looking to buy discounted gold ounces in the ground. Jim and Dan have found one of the largest gold producers in Mexico trading at cheap prices, which makes it a takeover candidate as well as having considerable leverage to higher gold prices and significant gains for savvy investors.

Trade Alert: An ETF In No Man’s Land Between Growth and Value

Demand for momentum stocks tends to rise in response to higher prices. Conversely, demand falls in response to lower prices. That's the opposite of real-world laws of supply and demand. It’s the opposite of a value-conscious investor. This month, Jim and Dan focus on one ETF with holdings of momentum stocks that headed into 2021 with no valuation support. Today they are in no man’s land, caught between momentum investors who have been selling, and value-conscious investors. Value-conscious investors might become buyers of these stocks, but not until prices have fallen much further.

C.O.B.R.A. December Portfolio Update

We recommended exiting a few positions this week that had unusually large percentage increases in last Friday’s global risk-off trading session. The media narrative was that sell-off was due to a new COVID variant. This is why COVID policies are one of the macro factors Jim monitors to guide our trades. For now, Dan updates you on the open positions in the portfolio.