Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

MARKET UPDATE: This Bear Market Rally Won’t Last Long

Although we did not see a crash last week after the Fed’s rate hike, there are many more perils facing this market. And investor behavior is still complacent. Watch what people are doing with portfolios, rather than what they are telling pollsters. We recommend ignoring “market sentiment” polls which often send misleading signals in bear markets. There is much more downside in today’s market as the Fed is not ready to relent on its tightening policy as they head into their July FOMC meeting. Senior Investment Analyst Dan Amoss provides an update.

Sell Alert: Take Profits On Caterpillar Put Spread

In our June 9 portfolio update, we mentioned that CAT had drifted higher on no material developments other than a return of risk appetite. That risk appetite vanished on June 10, and the stock has sold off sharply. We are early into our max holding period through August expiration and already have an excellent return. Now is a good time to exit this position.

Sell Alert: Take Profits On Apple Put Spread

We are halfway into our max holding period through July expiration and already have an excellent return on our AAPL puts. Our max value of $10 per contract would be achieved by holding another month and expecting AAPL to close below $135. We think there are better risk/return trades than holding onto this one. Let’s take gains on this position now.

June Portfolio Update

As Jim discussed in his latest briefing, unless oil prices start falling soon, we’re looking at more painful smashes from the Fed to the demand side of the economy. Because if oil prices keep rising through the summer, CPI will remain high, which would delay the return of the dovish Fed which stock market bulls all know and love. More investors will recognize that the Fed is making a policy mistake, which implies that gold is a better store of long-term value than U.S. dollar bank deposits that pay below-inflation rates of interest. That’s good news for the many gold stocks we hold in the portfolio. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions.

MIDAS June Portfolio Update

The long correction in junior gold and silver stocks continues as investors are fearful of what the Fed’s tightening plans will do to gold prices. But the longer we are in a negative real interest rate environment due to high inflation, the better gold performs as a store of value relative to the U.S. dollar. It has been a fairly quiet month in the portfolio as juniors gear up for summer 2022 drilling season in the Northern Hemisphere. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio.