Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Oversaturation of Food Delivery Apps Slams Grubhub

Food delivery apps are a form of restaurant sector disruption and have been highly popular with diners in recent years. However, oversaturation of these apps has led to intense competition and a stunning crash of Grubhub stock in late October. This overinvestment will result in consumers benefiting at the expense of the app companies and restaurants, which will continue putting pressure on their stock prices.

Lock in a 10% Return on EnerSys

Despite lackluster third quarter earnings reports, investors are piling into stocks. But such a bullish environment is unlikely to last. With a less than impressive quarterly report last week, one of our positions still ralled due to the broad stock market upward trend so let’s take gains now before a downturn.

Project Prophesy Portfolio Update

Stock valuations have spiked recently from already high levels as investors expect a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war along with an anticipation of further Fed rate cuts. For now, read on for Dan’s analysis on all open recommendations in the portfolio as earnings guidance has arrived for many of our plays.

The Evidence Is in: Gold Miner Profitability Surges

The recent gold bull market is delivering nice returns for gold mining stocks. Miners spent years cutting costs in the face of low prices and now are reaping the rewards of revenue increases as operating income surges. If gold prices trend higher through year-end, look for many miners to easily surpass revenue goals and create excellent returns for patient investors.

Why a VIX Spike Causes Bids for Stocks to Disappear

The VIX, or volatility index, is a valuable indicator of stress within capital markets. When the index spikes, bids for stocks are dropped, which can cause prices to plummet overnight. When a geopolitical crisis causes higher volatility, there are few buyers anymore looking to bid for value stocks on weakness. As a result, the VIX can quickly overwhelm other factors and lead to abrupt declines in the major stock indexes.

The Investing Consequences of a Fracking Ban

During a political season, candidates announce policies designed to grab national attention. Elizabeth Warren’s recent tweet on a fracking ban proposal should cause investors to pause. A ban would be a death blow to the industry, the jobs the industry supports as well as oil and gas shale plays. Investors should tread lightly. There is much more unrecognized risk in today’s market environment than there is unrecognized value.

A Shocking Example of Investor Complacency That Ended Badly

After a decade of pro-shareholder decisions from governments and regulators, political winds are shifting. Today, shareholders of distressed companies are feeling the pain of overvalued stocks that find themselves in legal jeopardy. There are many overvalued stocks in which investors are ignoring significant risks and should guard against complacency at their own peril.