Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Take A 30% Gain on Cleveland-Cliffs

Infrastructure-related stimulus will likely arrive at some point in 2021, but the rallies in these sectors look very overextended. Our target price for CLF was $22 by the second half of 2021. It’s covered much of this ground in a matter of weeks. Since we might may be able to re-enter this position on favorable terms in the months ahead, let’s take gains today.

Project Prophesy January Portfolio Update

Some folks imagine that whatever stock they’re buying – no matter the quality of the underlying business – will keep appreciating at a steady rate forever. That’s not how markets work. Eventually, the supply of investors willing to pay ever-higher prices for a stock runs dry. For now, read on as Dan gives guidance on all our open positions, including a great start for our latest recommendation and two stocks moving from a buy to a hold.

Supply Of New Shares Will Depressurize The Bubble

Today’s bulls rest easy with the notion that central banks “have their back.” Central bankers have promised not to raise interest rates for years, so there’s no perceived threat of tighter financial conditions. They shouldn’t rest easy though. Because another slower-moving threat to the overvaluation environment is emerging. A relentless supply of new securities could ultimately be the pin that pricks today’s bubble.

Project Prophesy Model For Gold Points Higher

Yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note are drifting lower on heightening fears of a double-dip recession. That’s a tailwind for gold. As we move into 2021, inflation is likely to surprise to the downside due to lockdowns, low money velocity and stress in the credit market. But we doubt this trend will hurt gold because investors in these markets expect that the worse deflation gets in the short-term, the more fiscal and monetary reaction we will see.

Midas Sell Alert: Take A 28% Gain on Metalla Royalty and Streaming

MTA is a high-potential company and we are confident the stock will deliver excellent long-term returns. However, we see much better value elsewhere in our portfolio of recommendations. This stock has moved higher at a very fast rate on little incremental news. So, we recommend taking a healthy gain after a short holding period for an annualized gain of 186%.

Prophesy Sell Alert: Take 47% Gains on JinkoSolar Puts

Normally, when a manufacturing company is growing sales volume at a fast pace, gross margins rise. But this is not the case with JKS. Management has warned that gross margin would fall to a range of 13% to 15% in the fourth quarter. The down-cycle in solar module manufacturing is coming into focus. JKS is a stock with much more downside. However, since its decline thus far has exceeded our expectations, now is a good time to take profits.

MIDAS December Portfolio Update

Our positions has moved sideways for the most part in recent weeks as the gold consolidation continued. Some positions are outpacing others, but our view of any particular stock has not changed very much. We don’t expect this consolidation to last much longer because the conditions for gold to surge higher in the weeks ahead are favorable. For now, Dan updates the latest developments for all our open positions in the portfolio.

Why Market Conditions Are the Opposite of 2008

Market conditions are the polar opposite of what they were in the depths of the 2008 crash. Back then, short sellers were sitting on large gains and adding to already-large short positions. Today, short sellers are an endangered species. And without short sellers, a lopsided order book in the market, tilted too far toward the sell side, can make a crash much more intense.