Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

American Airlines Shares Ignore Slowing Flight Growth

As the economy reopens and summer approaches, many people can hardly wait to get out and travel. But if even a small percentage of people have permanently adjusted their savings and spending habits, the airline industry will have a very difficult time adapting. Also, a steady rise in oil prices could add to rising jet fuel costs. These headwinds will put pressure on AAL’s stock price in the coming weeks.

Sell Alert: Take A 40% Profit on Contango Oil & Gas

Although the new merger deal that Contango recently announced could wind up with phenomenal long-term returns, it will also take months for MCF management to convince new investors to buy into the story prior to closing later in the year. Between now and then, MCF shares could remain in a sideways pattern unless oil prices rise substantially from here. So, let’s take 40% gains now on this position.

Sell Alert: Exit Your AMC June Put Spread

A highly improbable reinflation of a second AMC bubble has emerged which speaks to how fragile and distorted the financial markets have become that this could happen again. As a result, the long leg of our put spread on AMC is likely to expire worthless on June 18. So, we recommend exiting both legs of this trade today.

MIDAS Buy Alert: An Undiscovered Nevada Gold Miner With 200% Upside – Plus Dividends

It’s rare for a company to focus on creating shareholder value without share dilution. Most junior gold companies issue too many shares relative to the value they create by discovering new resources. Using the MIDAS system, Dan releases a recommendation on an undiscovered gold miner with a strong balance sheet that is undervalued and could rise five-fold or ten-fold in a higher gold price environment.

Zombie Bubble Phenomenon Reinflates AMC

AMC shares are moving higher from an intense desire by inexperienced traders to own a stock at prices that will require endlessly strong demand for the stock. Time-tested fundamental analysis indicates that AMC shares are practically worthless, but this latest buying spree is hurting our position. It’s the latest version of “zombie bubbles” that have occurred in 2020-21.

MIDAS Sell Alert: Take A 50% Profit on Skeena Resources

Grades are very high for a planned open pit operation by Skeena Resources, but there are valid concerns about operating an open pit in its location. Also, the rapid pace of share dilution from funding the deal looks excessive. With Skeena entering a riskier phase of its development, we’d rather bank this gain and watch from the sidelines. We recommend taking a 50% gains on this position.

MIDAS May Portfolio Update

Gold rebounded nicely from its March lows, but it still has plenty of upside in the months ahead as interest rates remain low. Meanwhile, fears of inflation are stirring in the wake of the 4.2% CPI inflation number for April that was reported earlier this week. This could be a further catalyst for higher gold prices. For now, Dan gives guidance on all our open positions in the portfolio, including two positions being moved from buy status to a hold.