Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

Buy Alert: Merger News Creates A New Trade Opportunity

Mergers and acquisitions often disappoint. However, over the last four years, most M&A deals in gold mining have created value for shareholders right off the bat, especially between companies with established gold mine operations. Jim and Dan recommend buying shares of this globally diversified gold producer as a recent announced all-stock acquisition of Yamana Gold will enhance its revenue projections ahead of a series of value-adding projects as a combined company.

June Portfolio Update

A strong wave of selling could start as soon as next Wednesday, June 15, when Fed Chairman Powell could communicate that the Fed may raise rates faster than the market expects. With so much “negative gamma” at options dealers, the volatility in stocks between next Wednesday afternoon and next Friday could accelerate. This creates great opportunity for our put spread strategy going forward. For now, Dan gives guidance in this month’s portfolio review.

June Portfolio Update

Jamie Dimon has a dire warning for investors and the Fed may disappoint bulls with a hawkish outlook for rate hikes going into the June 15 FOMC meeting. That means the path of least resistance for most stocks is lower. Also, with investors looking complacent after a bounce from late-May lows, we are evaluating new trade recommendations. For now, Dan gives guidance on our open recommendations in the portfolio, including moving one position from a buy to a hold.

Sell Alert: Take Profits on American Airlines Puts

AAL is a bit oversold this morning on concern that fuel costs have soared and will remain high. American and all its competitors are restricting seat supply, which keeps pricing high. That is a short-term tactic, not a path to prosperity for the airline industry. With the rally today, let’s take gains on this position as we near expiration in two weeks.

COBRA June Portfolio Update

The Fed’s tightening campaign, plus the global challenge of high inflation, are the two dominant factors driving currency markets. If the Fed sees inflation expectations remaining high, it will feel compelled to keep tightening. Jim sees rising odds of a Fed policy error because it is tightening into a weakening economy. Also, in regards to our two open positions, sky-high oil, gas, and electricity prices make the U.K. and Japan vulnerable to a downturn. For now, Dan gives guidance on these positions, including moving both to a hold.

Trade Alert: German Stocks Still Have Plenty of Downside

With the War in Ukraine threatening its energy imports, Germany has scrambled to secure alternative oil and gas supplies. But this can only go so far. The country is likely to have tight supplies and world-leading energy prices for years into the future. That would undermine its industrial sector’s competitiveness. Jim and Dan revisit a bearish trade on this ETF that is heavily weighted in German equities.

Sell Alert: Take Gains on NVIDIA Puts

We noted in our buy alert earlier this month that investors might sell NVDA ahead of the company’s May 25 quarterly report in anticipation of management cutting revenue guidance. But we also wouldn’t be surprised if NVIDIA’s popular CEO reignites enthusiasm for the stock. With the stock trading lower heading into earnings, let’s sell now ahead of the report for a nice gain after three weeks.

Sell Alert: Take Profits On Our Second Winner This Week

Net earnings revisions for the Industrials sector of the S&P 500 just turned negative in April. That’s good news for our XLI puts. Our ultimate bear market target for XLI is as low as $52. But that will depend on how long the Fed maintains its tightening policy. Meanwhile, we have a profit of more than 100% after only two weeks, so let’s take gains now. We recommend exiting this position for our second winner this week.

MIDAS May Portfolio Update

It has been a very rough month for junior gold and silver stocks as Fed tightening began. Even if the Fed hikes rates a few more times, and the measured inflation rate slows, we are still unlikely to see a sustained period of positive real interest rates. The longer we are in negative real interest rates, the better gold looks as a store of value relative to the U.S. dollar. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio, including moving one position from a buy to a hold.