Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.


Big Banks Have a Warning for the Bulls

Investors have recently developed an appetite for tech stocks that was last seen in 1999. They must be assuming that tech sector earnings will remain on a path of permanent growth. However, the upcoming second quarter earnings season could cause bulls to recognize that they’ve run the market up too far — well beyond earnings support. If so, these stocks could quickly reverse their recent gains.

Strategic Intelligence July Portfolio

An economy that requires trillions in stimulus and zero interest rates to function is an economy that is fragile. In other words, it’s hard to imagine it standing on its own two feet. As we move into the second half of the year, will markets start reacting to the real economy or stay afloat with a continual Fed injection of cash? For now, let’s review all our open positions in the portfolio.

Why Wynn’s Reopening Rally is Fading

The “re-opening” of the economy brought optimism to businesses that rely on travelers and tourists for their revenue, including Wynn Resorts. But WYNN stock is highly cyclical, and its balance sheet is levered enough to create credit stress in unfavorable conditions With plenty of negative economic and job market news on the horizon that will dampen casino and resort activity, it’ll be hard for WYNN shareholders to maintain a bullish view.

Project Prophesy July Portfolio Update

Many stocks have corrected since our last portfolio update in early June. The selling has been concentrated in sectors that are most exposed to travel, tourism, and discretionary spending. With a worsening pandemic and high deficits, we expect further upside in gold prices and gold stocks as well as more downside for stocks which have risen far beyond their earnings prospects. For now, Dan reviews all the open positions in the portfolio, including three gold mining stocks that continue to rise in price.

Apple Is Rotten at Today’s Valuation

As we approach second-quarter earnings season in July and August, it’s important to recognize that expectations for future earnings reported by the biggest public companies have never been higher. By ignoring the effects of the coronavirus lockdowns and a spike in unemployment that affect earnings growth, investors in mega-cap companies have set themselves up for disappointment.

Let’s Book 47% Gains on Maxar

The recent Vricon acquisition by Maxar was celebrated by investors in the space intelligence sector with a pop in its stock price. The market often misprices a company’s business initially and quickly revalues it to the upside or downside. So, with the recent surge in MAXR after only two months, let’s take gains on this position today.

Let’s Book 47% Gains on Maxar

The recent Vricon acquisition by Maxar was celebrated by investors in the space intelligence sector with a pop in its stock price. The market often misprices a company’s business initially and quickly revalues it to the upside or downside. So, with the recent surge in MAXR after only two months, let’s take gains on this position today.