Dan AmossDan Amoss

Dan Amoss, CFA, tracks aggressive accounting and other red flags that markets miss. He’s a student of the Austrian School of economics and Daily Reckoning fan since 2000. Agora Financial relies on Dan for macro market commentary as well as profitable plays like his 2008 call to readers to buy Lehman Bros. puts, which gained 462% as the stock fell from $45 to $12. And he called American Airlines’ bankruptcy long before the Chapter 11 filing, telling readers to short the stock, which tanked from $6 to just 26 cents.

Formerly, he was investment adviser to one of the top small-cap mutual funds in the country. He grew up on a semi-working small farm that his great-grandfather bought in 1907, learning thrift and the value of hard work through generations. 

This informs his drive to seek truth and expose frauds and promotions that suck in investors. He cut his teeth in finance interviewing management teams in “roadshows” and so knows the kind of BS they sell.

His bottom-up investing style focuses on management strategy, return on capital and the truth (and lies) buried in financial statements.

MIDAS March Portfolio Update

The sooner investors realize that the Treasury and Fed have trapped themselves into permanent deficit spending and money printing, the sooner gold will start its next rally against the paper currency that underpins it all. It has been encouraging to see so many positions hold up fairly well in the face of relentless weakness in gold prices in February and March. Now is the time to take advantage of lower entry prices. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio.

Strategic Intelligence March Portfolio Update

As the debt and deficits grow at an unprecedented rate, the economic fallout has yet to be realized. Jim expects strong deflationary forces in the short run and even stronger inflationary pressure in the long run. The longer the Federal Reserve balance sheet grows and Congress authorizes more spending bills, the less flexibility the Fed will have to react to a future inflation surprise. The Fed won’t be able to defend the dollar’s value without sacrificing either the financial market bubble it has promoted or the easy financing terms it has set for the Treasury. For now, read on as Dan gives guidance on all our open positions in the portfolio.

Bonds Remind Us That Stock Valuation Still Matters

Most investors are looking for a cash-on-cash return. They put their hard-earned cash into a stock and want a shot at receiving a decent-sized earnings stream or dividend stream within some reasonable amount of time. This cash-on-cash return framework reminds us of the importance of default-free government debt yields that are available. If these yields spike higher, then the willingness to hold the most speculative, lowest cash-on-cash return stocks can fall sharply.

The Solar Bubble Hits Resistance

Bubbles are characterized by greater and greater demand for a stock, without the justification of healthy growth from the underlying business. When fundamentals lag behind share prices, investors pay many times their earnings. Because sometimes bubbles can create unjustified gains longer than expected, we use carefully chosen options trades to bet against them.

MIDAS February Portfolio Update

The European Central Bank is slowly destroying its banking system with negative rates, and Fed officials have indicated that they want to avoid negative policy rates. If yields on the 1-year or 2-year Treasury note yield turn negative in the months ahead, it’s likely to rekindle investor interest in gold as a Treasury substitute. For now, Dan gives guidance on all the open positions in the portfolio.

Let The Games Stop

Completely detaching GameStop’s share price from its corporate fundamentals is a warning about the societal damage caused by bubbles inflating and popping. The end result of this destructive trend is a wealth transfer from the last buyers in the mob to the first buyers, with the last buyers being the bag-holders. Making leveraged bets on overvalued stocks is a game that must come to an end for any prudent investor.